Written by Colin Kennedy

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Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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At the midpoint of the NFL season, two of the biggest surprises have been two NFC South teams: the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the Falcons have made the playoffs three out of the previous four seasons, no one expected them to have the league’s best record. Likewise, many analysts and experts expected the upstart Bucs to be a several seasons away from playoff contention due to their youth, inexperience and lack of depth along with a rookie head coach in Greg Schiano. However, after just ten games, the Falcons look locked into the NFC’s top seed while Tampa Bay attempts to win a Wild Card spot. On Sunday afternoon, the two will meet for the first time this season in what is expected to be a close game.

The Falcons are favored by a point, and cover 51.7 percent of the time in simulations. The total is set at 50.5 points with the two teams combining to go over 52.5 percent of the time. In simulations where the Falcons committed fewer turnovers (31 percent) they went on to win 80 percent of the time. The Bucs won 59 percent of simulations when they committed fewer turnovers.

In years past, the Falcons featured a balanced offensive attack between quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner. While Turner used to be the key that ignited this Falcon offense, Ryan has emerged as not only the team leader but deservingly among the league’s elite at his position. In simulations he averages 313 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, but against this porous Buccaneer defense I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers are significantly higher.

Tampa Bay allows an average of 313 yards passing per game, the most in the NFL. They’ve done it while playing some poor passing offenses including Carolina (twice), Kansas City, and Minnesota. With starting cornerback Eric Wright out for Sunday’s contest, both Atlanta receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones figure to be able to pad their stats. Simulations showed White having an outstanding day with 90 yards receiving and half a touchdown while Jones added almost 80 yards himself and a 60 percent chance of a score. Jones is listed as questionable with an ankle injury although he did practice on Friday. If Jones misses this contest, expect more targets for tight end Tony Gonzalez, who would look to improve upon his projected 67.5 yards and 0.6 TD.

In years past, the Falcons were among the league’s top rushing teams, but Turner has significantly fallen off this season. Turner seems to have lost the power in his legs, and it shows with a paltry 3.7 yards per rush average on 155 carries. Fantasy dynasty league owners should expect and anticipate Turner’s release this upcoming offseason. Turner is projected to have less than 50 yards rushing and 0.4 TDs.

Unfortunately for Turner, the Bucs lead the league in run defense, although that figure is offset by having the league’s worst pass defense. While the Bucs rank last in the league against the pass, they have room for improvement and have impressively won their last four games to get into the playoff picture. The Bucs are now without their Week 1 starters (the injured Wright and recently traded CB Aqib Talib) at cornerback but hopefully over these next few weeks their youthful corners will develop into solid starters with decent futures.

Rookie running back Doug Martin, a late 1st round pick from Boise State, has quickly become a football sensation since his breakthrough performance against Oakland where he gained 251 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 25 carries. Martin how has over 1,300 total yards on the season, and if it weren’t for the stellar play of rookie QBs Robert Griffith III and Andrew Luck, would be in talks for Rookie of the Year honors. Martin projects to rush for 85 yards and score once. If the game remains close, he’ll be the Bucs best option to move the chains, so his numbers could reach into the triple digits for rushing yards.

The signing of receiver Vincent Jackson has really benefited Mike Williams, who slipped in his sophomore season. While Jackson leads the team with over 860 receiving yards, Williams is on pace to surpass 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Despite the Falcons having a deep and experienced secondary, I expect both Buccaneer receivers to surpass their projections. I think Jackson will be closer to 100 yards than his projected 78 yards and 0.7 TDs, while Williams’ projection of 53 yards seems low.

Freeman has beautifully rebounded from his disappointing 2011 season when his numbers dipped to a below average 74.6 passing rating, and a horrendous 16-22 TD to INT ratio. The combination of more talent to throw to and a more balanced offensive attack has allowed Freeman to take fewer chances, and it shows in his 21-7 TD-to-INT ratio. Freeman projects to pass for almost 260 yards and 2 TDs to just 1 interception.

The Atlanta defense mirrors their offense: strong passing units (4th offensively, 7th defensively) but weak rushing (28th offensively and 26th defensively). The defense has maintained a bend but don’t break mentality. While the defense has forced 19 total turnovers, few Falcon defenders have been able to consistently get after opposing quarterbacks. After John Abraham’s 9 sacks, Jonathan Babineaux is a distant second with just 3.5 sacks. These figures aren’t likely to change much after this weekend either.

Although the Falcons are in first place in the NFC, this game is more important to the Bucs as their second half schedule is among the toughest in the league. Over the next few weeks Tampa will play Denver, New Orleans and the Falcons again. While this Falcon team has been fortunate to win several close games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa take this important game. If Atlanta is able to get Turner going early, they should be able to lock up this game and potentially their division early. However, if the Bucs’ secondary is able to contain Ryan, expect this one to be a nail biter. I’m taking the upset here and taking the Bucs 31 Falcons 27.