Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AFC North – 2016 NFL Division Preview
Cincinnati Bengals
In what's one of the more competitive divisions, the Bengals edge their way past Pittsburgh in the simulations - just barely.
Now let's not get ahead of ourselves and finally expect this team to win a playoff game. Just looking ahead to the regular season, QB Andy Dalton should have another strong season with one of the league's best o-lines there protecting him.
The crucial variable on this roster is who steps up for the Bengals' receiving corps after A.J. Green. We know what we'll get with him, but with the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the offseason, the Bengals now have little to show outside of Green.
Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd will play their part, but just how successful Cincinnati is this season will depend on Tyler Eifert's production.
What do the sims say? UNDER. Big difference between 9.0 (sim) and 9.5 (set total) when considering average wins in simulations.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Offensively, this team is STACKED. They have the best running back unit in the league with Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo WIlliams.
Their receiving corps features Antonio Brown, who on his own is practically enough. Not having Martavis Bryant for the entire season could hurt them. THey added TE Ladarius Green in the offseason, but it'll take an improved Darrius Heyward-Bey or Markus Wheaton to make sure Brown and Big Ben get the space they need.
The Steelers' defense is a concern, the front-seven and the secondary. Neither unit has much depth. Cameron Heyward and James Harrison are reliable, no doubt, but similar to the receiving corps, this unit will need others to step up to make sure the unit as a whole gets the job done week after week. Keep an eye on Jarvin Jones and Bud Dupree - roster needs these two to have much-improved seasons.
What do the sims say? The Steelers win under 9 games on average in season sims, much lower than the 10.5 line listed for them.
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Baltimore Ravens
Last season for Baltimore can be recapped with one word: injuries. Their QB, No. 1 RB, No.1 WR all missed multiple weeks - and that's just impact players on offense.
Joe Flacco is back for Baltimore, but let's be honest: it's not like he was playing well before last year's injury. In NFL player performance projection simulations, Flacco has 22 TDs and 13 INTs in 2016, completing between 59-to-60 percent of his passes.
What do the sims say? Baltimore averages fewer than 8 wins (7.8) in season sims, not close enough to the 8.5 line set in Vegas. They're projected to finish more than one game behind Pittsburgh, with the Steelers having more than two times the chance of the Ravens at winning the division.
Cleveland Browns
Are fans more excited to see how the Browns do, or how RGIII performs?
He's projected to finish this season with 16 passing TDs, 13 INTs, and a completion percentage of about 63-to-64 percent.
X-Factor: Heading into last season, the offensive line was ranked as one of the best in the league. That unit did just fine in 2015, with Joe Thomas still leading the way. What will be key this season is replacing the production of Alex Mack, who struggled in 2015 coming back from injury.
What do the sims say? Based on the RGIII sims and Cleveland's win total (6.7 on average), AccuScore data definitely considers the Browns as more of a glass half-full situation. The sims suggest taking the OVER on the Browns' win total.
