Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Monday Night Football Preview:
Baltimore Ravens versus Cincinnati Bengals

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When it comes to football, Monday isn’t just another day. Monday Night Football is more like a phenomenon than another TV event. It’s something that not only makes Mondays much less mundane for the sports fan, but also allows for big advertising opportunities for businesses on these evenings of extremely high viewership. Monday Night Football...it is a tradition.

This season’s Monday Night Football gets going when the Cincinnati Bengals march into M&T Bank Stadium to face off against their divisional rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. Which AFC North rival will triumph? Baltimore was just a field-goal away from the Super Bowl last year, and the Bengals sneaked into the playoffs even though they lost to this same Baltimore team in the final week of the regular season. The Ravens may only lead the all-time series 18-14, but this week’s game should show a greater difference than that record would indicate.

Fun Fact: September 10, 2007- the Bengals defeated the Ravens 27-20 to start the season in a game that took place in Cincinnati.

The Bengals spent last season under the radar and finished 9-7, losing to the Texans in the AFC Wildcard round 31-10. The Ravens finished last year’s regular season 1st in the AFC North with a 12-4 record, and went on to defeat the Texans 20-13 but lost to the Patriots 23-20 in the AFC Championship game.

This season, Baltimore will be looking to their quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice to finally get them back to the Super Bowl. Cincinnati hopes the duo of quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green can get them back into the playoffs, and maybe even win a game once they get there. Monday night’s game should follow AccuScore’s simulations, which has the Ravens winning the match-up almost 73 percent of the time, and end with a potentially easy victory for Baltimore.

Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 41.

My favorite part of this match-up is the Baltimore defensive line going against the Cincinnati offensive line. The Ravens have a demoralizing pass rush racking up 48 sacks in 2011 which tied for third-most in the NFL. On the other side you have an offensive line that allowed just 24 sacks last season, and should be solid again in 2012. The Ravens won’t have the beast that is Terrell Suggs (who posted a career-high 14 sacks in 2011) until November due to a torn right Achilles tendon. Linebacker Paul Kruger will fill in, and needs to play to his potential each play in order for the Baltimore pass rush to be nearly as potent as it was last year. Linebacker Ray Lewis, tackle Haloti Ngata, and safety Ed Reed led a defense that finished third the league in scoring defense (16.6 PPG) and total defense (289 YPG) a year ago.

For picks against the spread, on the moneyline, and on totals for both of tonight’s Monday Night football games, visit the NFL Expert Picks page

The Bengals will try to take advantage of Suggs’ absence, and give back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (667 yards for New England in 2011, 1,008 in 2010) plenty of touches in a run-oriented offense. Cincinnati’s other running back, Bernard Scott, won’t play due to a hand injury. Any Cincy fan reading this should hope that Marvin Jones and the rest of the Bengals receivers are busy preparing for Reed and the Ravens’ secondary. If Green starts seeing double-teams, Dalton’s job becomes much tougher than it needs to be.

Dalton is coming off a rookie season where he made the Pro Bowl and threw for 3,398 yards and 20 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. I do think Dalton can improve on those numbers especially his efficiency, but Monday night’s match-up does not favor him at all. Baltimore ranked fourth in the league in pass defense last year allowing only 196 yards per game. In last season’s two matchups with Baltimore, Dalton threw for only one touchdown with three interceptions. AccuScore’s simulations have him throwing for 216 yards with a higher probability of an interception than a score. I don’t think he gets more than 200 yards for the night.

Any chance of the Ravens losing this game will stem from multiple interceptions thrown by Flacco. In his career he has faced the Bengals eight times posting a 5-3 record, and threw at least two interceptions in each of those three losses. Last season he threw for 400 yards and two touchdowns in his two games against the Bengals. AccuScore’s simulations have him throwing for 235 yards, a number that actually might not be too high for him. In the past Flacco's main issue against the Bengals has always been their cover-2 defense; once cornerback Johnathan Joseph left for Houston, Flacco’s efficiency improved against the Bengals, a trend that should continue this season.

Rice has shouldered much of the responsibility on offense for years and although that won’t change a whole lot this season, Baltimore’s plan to use the no-huddle will limit some of his runs. If the passing game isn’t working out, Flacco has a guy in Rice who is pretty good at moving the ball. If Baltimore does continue with the no-huddle, Rice might just make more plays on the outside and give Flacco another receiving threat. The last time Rice faced the Bengals he had 191 yards with a 70-yard score to start the game and another 51-yard touchdown.

The Bengals are winless against the Ravens in their last three meetings. They’ve managed to keep each of those games close with the biggest margin being only eight points, but I expect the losing streak to continue Monday. The Baltimore defense will focus on not letting Green make big plays while the Cincinnati defense will have trouble stopping Rice. Most of the score predictions I’ve seen have kept the game between three and seven points with AccuScore’s simulations forecasting an average 24-16 score. The Ravens know it’s a big game and are going to come out ready for it; I’ll say 24-13 Ravens win.