By Jonathan Lee
* This analysis was written before the news broke that David Garrard would need surgery on a herniated disc. He will not be an option for the Raiders.
Jason Campbell suffered what is expected to be a season-ending injury on Sunday. While the Raiders still got the win moving to 4-2, the loss of Campbell could put a real damper on their playoff chances.
Oakland is currently half a game behind San Diego. Boller however is a significant downgrade from Campbell as a quarterback and the Raiders should (and probably will) look outside the organization for help at the position. The two names that will likely come up are free agent David Garrard and the erstwhile retired Carson Palmer.
| OAKLAND RAIDERS |
W (Current) |
W (Rest) |
W% (Rest) |
PLAYOFF |
DIVISION |
| w/ Kyle Boller |
4 |
4.5 |
45.0% |
31.4% |
15.8% |
| Jason Campbell |
-- |
5.3 |
53.0% |
50.7% |
29.6% |
| David Garrard |
-- |
5.5 |
55.0% |
53.7% |
31.8% |
| Carson Palmer |
-- |
5.3 |
53.0% |
51.2% |
30.7% |
If Campbell were healthy the Raiders projected for 5.3 more wins the rest of the season. They made the playoffs 50.7 percent of the time, and won the AFC West 29.6 percent of the time. Boller would project to lead the team to just 4.5 wins, and just a 31.4 percent chance for a playoff spot. Garrard looks to be the best option as Oakland would make the playoffs in 53.7 percent of simulations. Palmer would be second best at 51.2 percent.
The biggest issue of course would be integrating Garrard, Palmer, or any other quarterback into the team after six weeks of the season. These projections are contingent on any player assimilating quickly and seamlessly as a part of the offense. The second issue would be acquiring said player. Garrard would be easiest because he is a free agent after being released by Jacksonville before the season. Palmer, though retired, is technically under contract with Cincinnati. Paul Brown probably would let Palmer sit on the sideline as a punitive measure rather than deal him to another team.
With Campbell out, Oakland still needs another quarterback to either start or at least back-up Boller. The other quarterback on the roster is Terrelle Pryor who by any measure is not ready to play the position at the NFL level. Taking everything into account, it looks like Garrard is the best option.
