2014 NFL Season Totals: Recap

In the beginning of the season we simulated every regular season game and compared our simulation results to Vegas season totals for every team NFL Season Futures 2014. It is time to review the prediction outcomes and analyze a bit more our picks.

In general we got 16 correct and 15 wrong as Miami hit the Vegas number of eight wins. This barely 50% hit rate wasn’t any significant number, but showed that some of the teams we predicted to bounce back (Tampa Bay and Jacksonville) were not ready for pushing playoffs just yet. Also some teams that we predicted not to be contenders (Buffalo and Detroit) put together an inspiring season.

When we take a closer look of the value of our NFL futures, we picked up 15 teams that have some value when comparing our simulated total wins and Vegas win totals. Results from these teams’ season results were much better. Out of 15 we got 9 correct. That means nice 60% hit rate with 210 units profit. Of course your money is always tied up a long time in these future bets, but usually it is easier to find some value from these futures compared to individual games.

We also picked 2 teams as our season future picks. Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Both teams played as we predicted. Dallas won their division and played one of the best season under Tony Romo. They also took full advantage of the poor performances of other teams in NFC East. One of these poor performers was the New York Giants. Their Vegas line was maybe a bit inflated due their high media coverage, but by bringing in dozens of journeymen and hoping everything to click after disastrous season 2013, was doomed to fail from the beginning.

Now it is time to simulate NFL playoffs. We keep you updated about our results.