Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Dolphins running back Lamar Miller is projected to run for 45 rushing yards and has a 20 percent chance of getting at least 1 rushing TD. The New York Jets’ only chance at keeping this game close lies in the hands of QB Geno Smith. In the 26 percent of simulations in which the Jets come out on top, Geno Smith averages 1.01 TD passes and 0.89 INTs. In losses, he averages 0.56 TDs and 1.49 INTs.

Jets RB Chris Ivory averages 81 rushing yards and 0.61 rushing TDs in Jets wins, and 55 yards and 0.27 TDs in losses. The Dolphins have a 31 percent chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. A positive turnover margin puts their winning probability up to 82 percent.

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What to Watch For

Over the past six games, Ryan Tannehill has averaged a 104 Passer Rating to lead the Dolphins to a 4-2 record.

The NY Jets are third-worst in the league in percentage of offensive drives that end with no first downs or TDs. Nearly 39 percent of Jets' possessions are essentially futile. Only Tennessee and Oakland are worse.

Miami hasn't swept the Jets in a season since 2009. The road team, however, is 4-0 in these matchups over the past two seasons.