Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter
MEMBERS: Sign in at the top right to see both picks. Non-members, use this code 15mo to get 15% off membership: Join Now!
Flacco's night?
After 10,000-plus simulations, Joe Flacco averages 291 passing yards. If he has a performance with greater than 291 yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio - which there’s a 39 percent chance of - the Ravens winning probability goes up to 63 percent. Drew Brees averages 358 passing yards per sim. If he does better than that figure and has a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38 percent chance), the Saints’ winning probability goes up to 65 percent.
The Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 68 percent of simulated games, winning 55 percent of games when they take care of the ball. The Saints win 66 percent of sims when they commit fewer turnovers.
AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and on the Over/Under for every game: Click here - NFL Expert Picks
What to Watch For
Keep an eye on the Ravens force-feeding Steve Smith early. He has struggled over the past six weeks, with no more than 36 yards in a game over that span. Especially with the bye-week, the Ravens should have a solid plan of attack for Monday night.
All signs point to this being a shootout. The Saints are ranked second in yards per game, but scored just 10 points against Cincinnati on Sunday. That's not likely to happen again, especially on MNF. There is a 56.3 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER 50. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Saints’ last 6 games at home
Drew Brees is still winless against the Baltimore Ravens, having gone 0-3 in 2003, 2006 and 2010. He has defeated every other team in the league
