Written by Colin Kennedy

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AccuScore's computer has expert picks against the spread and on totals for every NFL Playoff game the Superbowl in two weeks’ time. If you're not a member, Join AccuScore at our lowest rates of all time

Last weekend, AccuScore’s computer went 4-0 on totals and 3-1 against the spread in the NFL divisional playoffs. With the Championship round set to go, check out all of AccuScore’s picks against the spread and on totals for the AFC Championship and NFC Championship games: NFL Expert Picks

AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England

In what will be a highly entertaining and emotional rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, the Baltimore Ravens travel 400 miles up the Eastern seaboard to take on the New England Patriots. The Ravens advanced by stunning the Denver Broncos 38-35 in double overtime, while the Patriots took care of business at home against the Houston Texans. Both of these team’s respective defensive units are capable of locking down opposing offenses, but both offenses also thrive on making plays downfield. Often, anything can and will happen in games of this magnitude, and I expect this year to be no different.

The simulations predict the Pats to win over 65 percent of the time by an average score of 27-21. Baltimore has a near 60 percent probability of covering the +9.5 point spread, while there’s a strong chance (60.6 percent) that the teams will combine to go under the posted total of 51 points. New England won 40.5 percent of simulations by double digits showing how explosive their offense can be, and how well Baltimore will have to play in this contest in order to get a win.

The Pats have a 50/50 chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit, however, a positive turnover margin helps them win 86 percent of the time. Flacco must have a good game for his team to advance; the Ravens’ QB averaged 1.6 TDs vs 0.6 INT in wins while suffered a horrid 1.13 to 1.07 TD/INT ratio in losses.

On September 23rd, the Ravens escaped with a 31-30 victory over New England behind 382 passing yards from Flacco. He was able to light up the Patriot secondary, but since that meeting Bill Belichick has acquired cornerback Aqib Talib. I wouldn’t expect Raven’s WR Torrey Smith to repeat his gaudy numbers (127 yards/6 receptions/2 TDs) posted back in Week 3 as Talib has done a good job limiting opposing wideouts. Talib limited Houston’s Andre Johnson, holding him under 100 yards and without a TD last week. Smith projects for 61 yards, 3.5 receptions and just 0.2 TDs against the Pats this time around. Veteran WR Anquan Boldin anchors the Ravens in simulations with almost 70 yards and 5 receptions.

Since the addition of Talib, the Pats have been able to send five or more pass rushers 35 percent of all defensive plays. Before the acquisition, the unit was held to a league-low of 15 percent of plas. In their Week 3 matchup, Flacco was successful against 5+ pass rushers but in limited doses. Flacco went 3-4 for 48 yards. Expect new Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell to attack downfield. Flacco led the NFL with 18 passes of 30+ yards against four or fewer pass rushers.

If the Pats only rush four, expect Flacco to have a field day. He threw for 334 of his total 382 yards against a weak pass rush. Flacco has yet to throw an interception on passing attempts of 20 yards or more downfield, and he is 8-of-12 already this postseason. AccuScore projects 270 yards, 1.3 TDs, 0.9 INTs with an 82.6 quarterback rating.

Expect Ravens’ RB Ray Rice to struggle. He is simulated for 60 yards rushing on 3.6 yards per carry. Although he makes his impact in multiple ways (projected 40 yards receiving), the Pats finished the regular season ranked 9th in rushing yards allowed per game. They recently held Texans RB Arian Foster to just 90 yards on the ground. In Ravens simulation victories, Rice averaged 82 rushing yards but in their simulated losses, he projected for less than 50 yards rushing.

The Ravens have witnessed a major boost to their team with the return of their lead middle linebacker Ray Lewis. After missing the majority of the season, Lewis has made his return felt on the field as he’s resumed his spot in middle linebacker. The main priority of this defense will be shutting down the run, as it is near impossible to stop the New England passing attack.

While Patriot RB Stevan Ridley simulated averages of just 63 yards rushing, the team overall had over 115 and no back was held under 4 YPC. Offensively, the Patriots will find a weakness in the Ravens defense and exploit it. Last week, after the injury to All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Pats inserted little used RB Shane Vereen into the action and found instant success (120 total yards, 3 TDs). Not to say that Vereen will enjoy such success again, but the always unpredictable Patriots can make a star out of any of their positional players.

Tom Brady averaged 290 yards passing with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in simulations. He is forecasted for just 1.4 passing touchdowns, and I expect that total to be improved. His numbers regularly pass 300 yards through the air, and despite the loss of Gronk, his output should remain high.

Historically, Brady has not fared well throwing downfield against the Ravens. He’s just 6-of-22 with four INTs on passes more than 10 yards down the field. Expect the Ravens to bottle up the middle of the field forcing Brady to look outside towards WR Brandon Lloyd. While there are two other receivers ahead of him in the projections, Lloyd should have a breakout game and surpass his simulated totals of 67 yards and 0.3 TDs. The absence of Gronkowski will provide fellow TE Aaron Hernandez with more targets; expect Hernandez’s outcome to come close to the projected 74 receiving yards. WR Wes Welker could be in for a huge game, especially if the banged-up Ravens linebackers are forced to cover him in the slot. Welker projects for 91 yards off 7.5 receptions.

Despite the Ravens beat the Patriots already this season, New England should be able to defeat their rivals and make another appearance in the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t count out the Ravens, they do have plenty of offensive fire power and can still create havoc on defense. I don’t see a blowout for either squad, but I still like the Pats 28-20.