Written by Jon Lee

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Chargers and Broncos Favorites in Wild AFC West

San Diego Chargers

This team was widely expected to fire coach Norv Turner last year after another disappointing season, but he is back for yet another run. Turner will begin the season with a ton of expectations once again as the Chargers are still the favorite in the AF C West winning the division 41 percent of the time in simulations while averaging more than nine wins. San Diego began and ended the 2011 season going 4-1, but a six game losing streak in between doomed their year. Consistency will be a sought after commodity in 2012.

Turner will have to deal with injuries to two of his most important offensive players. Running back Ryan Mathews is still recovering from a broken clavicle and receiver Vincent Brown is out until about midseason with a broken ankle. Neither player can be great however unless quarterback Philip Rivers bounces back from a poor season. His superficial numbers from a year – 4,624 passing yards, 27 touchdowns – look fine, but he turned the ball over 29 times (20 interceptions, 9 fumbles) including a botched fumble in Kansas City that cost his team the game and ultimately the division title.

Surrounding Rivers will be a relatively new cast of characters. Mathews should recover sometime early in the season, and could still play a role in Week 1. Tight end Antonio Gates is reportedly full healthy. He could play a massive role in the offense is his foot issues are behind him. Robert Meachem was brought in from New Orleans as were veterans Eddie Royal and Roscoe Parrish to help replace the departed Vincent Jackson at receiver. The offensive line is in flux after the retirements of both Marcus McNeil and Kris Dielman due to injuries.

Really, the most improvement for this team can come from the defense. If that side of the ball can be consistent and show some improvements this team should still be considered the favorite in the division.

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Denver Broncos

Right now, AccuScore projects Denver as a close second in the division winning nine games and the division 37 percent of the time. If however Peyton Manning can stay healthy all season and play up his former ability, the Broncos could be a serious threat for the playoffs.

It is difficult to really convey just how handicapped this team was last season because of poor quarterback play not just from Tim Tebow, but also Kyle Orton. The offense was so bad it made things incredibly difficult for a pretty talented defense. A healthy Manning solves many of those problems, but he also needs help at the skill positions. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas form a solid tandem at wide receiver, and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen were brought in specifically for this Manning-led system.

The running game could be a problem however with an aging Willis McGahee the lead back. Knowshon Moreno is coming off a serious knee injury which led the drafting of Ronnie Hillman. If no ground game emerges, it will put an undue amount of pressure on Manning.

The defense carried the team last year, and new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio hopes to continue that production. He will have to find a way to replace safety Brian Dawkins, and the suspended D.J. Williams who will sit out the first six games of the season. What Del Rio does have is a pair of superb pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.

This squad is much improved from a season ago, but a few Tebow miracle games masked what should have been a well below .500 record. A true 9-7 season would actually represent major improvement, and in contention for the division title.

Oakland Raiders

It is truly a new era for the Raiders after the death of long-time owner Al Davis. Dennis Allen was brought in as the new coach replacing Hue Jackson while Reggie McKenzie took over as general manager. No longer will the team be married to drafting pure speed and only man-to-man defensive schemes.

The offense will be led by quarterback Carson Palmer who cost the team a steep price in draft picks last season. He will playing in a system more geared to his abilities, but will have to rely on a young still unproven receiving corps of Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford. The offense really will be relying on the health of running back Darren McFadden. He is a true game-changer out of the backfield with his speed. Michael Bush is gone as his back-up, and replaced by Mike Goodson.

Expect to see multiple defensive styles with Allen at the helm featuring a mix of both man and zone coverage schemes. Also expect both three and four man fronts. The Raiders will be hoping scheme can mask the personnel problems that exist at all three levels of the defense. Both new cornerbacks – Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer – hardly played last season due to injury or ineffectiveness. The linebackers like Rolando McClain (also facing a potential prison sentence) and former high draft pick retread Aaron Curry are underwhelming. The line does have Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour in the middle, but no pass-rushing threats off the edge.

The overall lack of depth and talent on the roster combined with a completely new system will likely challenge Oakland this season. There is enough to stay competitive in this division, but not enough to truly challenge for the playoffs quite yet.

Kansas City Chiefs

Remember when the Chiefs were the next up-and-coming team in the AFC? Yea, me neither. A disastrous up-and-down season cost Todd Haley his job and the underwhelming Romeo Crennel has taken over as the head man. A rebound season rests on health and progression at several key areas. Kansas City is still projected fourth in the division with just a one in five chance at the playoffs. The upside however is that the division was won at 8-8 a year ago and just a 10-6 record could contend for the AFC West.

The offense has to hope running back Jamaal Charles is fully recovered from injury, and can stay healthy for the entire season. He is the one dynamic element that can help the teams win ball games. The rest of the O is limited by quarterback Matt Cassel who is about as average as one can get. He isn’t the worst player in the league, but he isn’t scaring any defenses anytime soon. Former Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis was brought in to be Charles’ partner in the backfield, and Kansas City hopes pairing the two will keep both healthy.

Tight ends Kevin Boss and Tony Moeaki could both be weapons in the passing game, but only if they can stay healthy and on the field as well. The starting receivers – Dwayne Bowe and Jon Baldwin – are more than adequate, and Steve Breaston will inject an element of speed.

Defensively, the Chiefs are led by cornerback Brandon Flowers and the return of safety Eric Berry from injury. Those two are surrounding by a mix of young unproven players in the secondary as well as in the linebacking corps. Up front there are underachieving first round draft picks in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. To help push that duo, the team drafted workout warrior Dontari Poe. Calling Poe inconsistent and unrefined would be kind.

The saving grace for the Chiefs is that the AFC West could still potentially be won with a mediocre record. The four teams in the division are relatively bunched up according to projections, and a few breaks could push them higher in the standings.