Written by Colin Kennedy

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AFC South: Texans Division Favorites

The AFC South features a little bit of everything for the 2012 season: a dark horse Super Bowl candidate, a team giving the keys to their explosive offense to an unproven rookie, a team trying to replace a legend with a phenom, and a team featuring little talent on either side of the ball. Looking at these team on paper, it appears to be pretty obvious who will run away with this division, but luckily for football fans seasons aren’t decided on potential.



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Houston Texans

Key Additions: OLB Whitney Mercilus, WR DeVier Posey, OG Brandon Brooks
Key Losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB/S Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston, ILB DeMeco Ryans, FB Lawrence Vickers

The Texans are projected to win only 9.1 games, rounding to a 9-7 record down from their 2011 season where they finished 10-6 and made the playoffs for the first time in team history.

The Texans may have lost a lot through free agency, but still has the core of a playoff team that went to the Divisional round after destroying the upstart Cincinnati Bengals with a rookie third-string quarterback in T.J. Yates and without the league’s premier pass rusher Mario Williams (injured). While receiver Andre Johnson should rebound from his injury-riddled 2011 campaign, the heart of this team will be the run with Arian Foster and the young, athletic offensive line that’s perfectly suited for the zone blocking system. General Manager Rick Smith really tried to give quarterback Matt Schaub more options through the draft (they completely ignored free agency), however young wideouts DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin don’t figure to get a ton of snaps this season. I’m intrigued to see how complete this offense will be now that Schaub, Johnson, and tight end Owen Daniels are now at full health.

While they boast one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, the Texans will be known for their ferocious defensive despite Williams bolting for Buffalo. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips believes that not only is defensive end J.J. Watt a future pro-bowler, but a Hall of Famer. He’s a great bookend with the disruptive Antonio Smith. Replacing Williams will be a combination of outside linebackers in Brooks Reed and rookie Whitney Mercilus who will play across from the talented Connor Barwin (11.5 sacks in 2011). Both Reed and Mercilus have looked great in camp, and they should rotate snaps and stay fresh. Brian Cushing should continue to dominate the field, Bradie James, despite his age, looks to be a wash with the now departed DeMeco Ryans who was not a good fit for the Phillips 3-4 defense. If this Texans team has a weakness it’s the secondary as, outside of Jonathan Joseph and Daniel Manning, they’re fairly young and raw.

The Texans should have no problem walking away with this division. They have a clear talent advantage while having the only veteran quarterback and continuity with their coaching staff. They’re a clear lock for 10 or 11 wins.

Tennessee Titans

Key Additions - DE Kamerion Wimbley, G Steve Hutchinson, WR Kendall Wright, LB Zach Brown, DT Mike Martin
Key Losses - CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones

The Tennessee Titans are projected to win 7.6 games in 2012, rounding up to a 8-8 record. They finished the 2011 season with a 9-7 record, but finished strong winning 4 out of their last 6.

The Titans are a very interesting team as a late season playoff run could be possible, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a complete faceplant and finishing a distant third in the division. Second year coach Mike Munchak made headlines by selecting “his guy” quarterback Jake Locker over veteran Matt Hasselbeck so expect lots of growing pains in Nashville. General manager Ruston Webster has done a great job surrounding young talent for Locker to succeed. It should be fun watching him grow with receivers Kenny Britt, rookie Kendall Wright, Damian Williams, Jared Cook and Lavelle Hawkins. Nate Washington is also coming off a surprise 1,000 yard receiving season as well, and he should be a solid veteran for Locker. The team addressed their inconsistencies on the interior offensive line by signing former great Steve Hutchinson and releasing center Eugene Amano. Having running back Chris Johnson back during the full offseason should create at least a more balanced offensive attack.

Defensively, the Titans leave something more to be desired. While they do have solid players in defensive end Kamerion Wimbley, linebacker Akeem Ayers, and free safety Michael Griffin, defensive coordinator Jerry Gray is stuck with mediocre players and raw, young talent. Losing cornerback Cortland Finnegan will hurt as they have to hope that former 7th round pick Tommie Campbell can live up to his preseason hype as a potential stud.

The Titan’s season rests on the shoulders of Locker. He has the keys to the potentially explosive offensive, but he has to rely on a potentially weak defense. Tennessee is at least one more season (and more help on defense) away from being a legitimate threat, not only in the AFC South, but in the conference. This team will float somewhere around 6-8 wins this season with a ceiling at 9 wins.

Indianapolis Colts

Key Additions - HC Chuck Pagano, QB Andrew Luck, TE Coby Fleener, DE Corey Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice, RB Mewelde Moore, TE Dwayne Allen, WR T.Y. Hilton, NT Josh Chapman, RB Vic Ballard, CB Vontae Davis
Key Losses - QB Peyton Manning, WR Pierre Garcon, RB Joseph Addai, WR Anthony Gonzalez, TE Dallas Clark, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, DE Jamaal Anderson, CB Jacob Lacey, CB/S Melvin Bullitt, LB Gary Brackett

The Indianapolis Colts are projected to win 6.1 games in 2012, rounding down to a 6-10 record. They finished the 2011 season with a 2-14 record after many projected them to continue their run of AFC South Dominance and once again make the playoffs.

There were a lot of changes to the Colts, but they have to improve on their dreadful 2-14 campaign which saw the city of Indianapolis lose favorite son Peyton Manning, and a mass exodus of players, coaches, and personnel. While they have a new general manager, coach, and quarterback, I expect them to sneak back to respectability in 2012.

Quarterback Andrew Luck is the perfect replacement for the departed Manning. No one can replace Archie’s son, but fans should already be looking forward to a bright future at Lucas Oil Stadium. New GM Ryan Grigson drafted four weapons for Luck to play with, two of them being tight ends (trying to replicated the Patriots success?). Don’t expect much from their running backs as they’re all below-average. Their offensive line is still a mess, but I’m intrigued to see former 1st round pick Anthony Castonzo develop.

New head coach Chuck Pagano will need a few years to develop his defense as well, but at least he got to keep premier pass rushers in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (both are now outside linebackers). Young talent is scattered through the unit, but no one in particular stands out. Grigson just traded for underperforming former Dolphins corner Vontae Davis who instantly becomes their best secondary defender.

While the Colts may have struggled in 2011 limping to a horrendous 2-14 campaign, this year’s version would be a remarkable turning point for the franchise. They’ll still have growing pains, but there are definitive bright spots on both sides of the ball. Five or six wins sounds about right as this team isn’t loaded with talent but figures to at least play teams close and win a few squeakers.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Additions - WR Justin Blackmon, DE Andre Branch, P Bryan Anger, WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne
Key Losses - DT Leger Douzable, DE Aaron Kampman, P Nick Harris, DE Matt Roth

The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to win 5.5 games, rounding up to a 6-10 record. The Jaguars finished the 2011 campaign with a 5-11 season.

New head coach Mike Mularkey certainly has his hands full and no free time on his hands as the Jaguars need a lot of work. They still don’t know what they have in quarterback Blaine Gabbert who struggled through a terrible rookie campaign and didn’t exactly give faith to the Jacksonville fans. While they really need to upgrade their receiver position, they severely overpaid for Laurent Robinson and rookie Justin Blackmon is nowhere near the prospect as recent high picks like AJ Green, Julio Jones, or even his former teammate at Oklahoma St. Dez Bryant. Tight end Mercedes Lewis fell back down to earth (10 TDs in 2010, 0 in 2011) and looks to regain his former Pro Bowl form. The offensive line is a hodge podge of young underachievers (LT Eugene Monroe, LG Eben Britton), average performers (G Uche Nwaneri), and aging veterans (C Brad Meester).

Then there is the Maurice Jones-Drew situation. Mojo has yet to report to camp choosing to hold out for new contract. He represents not only the only reliable skill-position player on offensive, but is also one of the best player in the league after leading the league in rushing in 2011. After accounting for 47 percent of the Jags’ offense last season, this year’s team could be painful to watch if Mojo doesn’t suit up or waits to come back (a la Chris Johnson in 2011).

Defensively there’s talent scattered everywhere, but consistency is lacking. The Jags are strong at the defensive tackle position with Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton, but they need to establish a pass rushing presence from the ends. Hopefully the rookie from Clemson, Alan Branch, can provide that. Middle lineback Paul Posluszny could lead the league in tackles, and outside lineback Daryl Smith is an above average player. They lack a playmaker in the secondary as Rashean Matthis is no longer the same player he was five years ago, and there are few other appealing players outside of hard hitting safety Dawan Landry. At least they drafted a punter with sky-high potential in Bryan Anger.

Jacksonville’s win-loss record solely rests on whether Jones-Drew returns and comes back in playing shape. With him, the team is still staring at a maximum of six wins, but without him the team could be in the running for the top draft choice in 2013.