By Jonathan Lee

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AFC

The calendar reads November and surprise, surprise: the Bengals are sitting atop the AFC.  Cincinnati, led by rookie Andy Dalton, is 6-2 after a comeback win over Tennessee.  The win had a huge effect on the standings, with the Bengals gaining a whopping 38.8 percentage points in playoff probability.  That more than doubled their playoff odds all the way up to 74.6 percent.  Baltimore completed a two-game sweep of Pittsburgh to become the favorite in the division.  The Ravens are 83.5 percent for a playoff spot.  Pittsburgh fell 12.4 percentage points as a result of the loss to Baltimore.  While all three teams are currently projected to make the postseason, they all make the playoffs in just 8 percent of simulations.  Cincinnati’s four remaining games against the Ravens and Steelers will go a long way in determining postseason positioning.

The AFC South has a certainty to it that has existed for most of the past decade; except, this season, it is Houston as the overwhelming favorite and not Indianapolis.  The Texans are 92 percent likely to win the division after having won 3 straight games.  The Colts meanwhile have a 5 percent chance of going winless.  This week, they play Jacksonville at home which will be their best chance of the season to get a win.  The Jags have just a 0.7 percent chance of making the postseason, but at least they have 2 wins on the year.  Tennessee is the only team with any kind of shot at catching Houston, but that happens in just 7.3 percent of simulations.

San Diego lost for the third time in a row, but if there ever was a "good" loss, this was it.  The Chargers fell to the Packers at home, but played well scoring 45 points in the process.  The Chiefs and Raiders also lost to keep the three teams tied at 4-4.  Those games resulted in the Chargers gaining 13.7 percentage points in playoff probability.  San Diego now wins the AFC West nearly 70 percent of the time.  Denver’s win over Oakland gave the Broncos a 3.2 percent chance to win the division.  Oakland’s playoff chances have disappeared rapidly each week with Carson Palmer at quarterback.  The Raiders lost 20.4 percentage points in playoff probability this week and are now only 18.6 percent likely to secure a spot in the postseason.  Kansas City had won four in a row, but an embarrassing loss to Miami at home really hurt in the standings.  The Chiefs have the worst statistical profile of the contenders in the AFC West, and they are just 9.8 percent likely to win the division.

The Jets were billed as contenders in the AFC East before the season started.  It took 9 weeks of play, but they have finally shown that type of fire by winning 3 in a row to earn a tie atop the division.  New York gained 10.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is now 40.2 percent likely for the postseason.  The Patriots are still easily the division favorite at 69 percent so the Jets are fighting for a Wild Card spot for now.  Buffalo might have lost its best chance to stay in the race after getting walloped by New York at home.  The Bills lost 26 percentage points in the projections and are now just 27.4 percent likely for the postseason despite having the same record (5-3) as New York and New England.

AFC	WEEK 9 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 9	WK 10	% DIFF	WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS	35.8%	74.6%	38.8%	29.9%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	57.6%	71.3%	13.7%	69.9%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	72.3%	83.5%	11.2%	43.8%
NEW YORK JETS	29.5%	40.2%	10.7%	18.3%
HOUSTON TEXANS	88.8%	92.6%	3.8%	92.0%
DENVER BRONCOS	0.5%	3.6%	3.1%	3.2%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	1.0%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.7%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	1.7%	0.7%	-1.0%	0.1%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	91.9%	85.9%	-6.1%	69.1%
TENNESSEE TITANS	16.1%	9.0%	-7.1%	7.3%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	19.0%	10.9%	-8.1%	9.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	93.5%	81.1%	-12.4%	26.3%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	39.0%	18.6%	-20.4%	17.1%
BUFFALO BILLS	53.3%	27.4%	-26.0%	12.6%

NFC

Eli Manning might be the difference in the NFC East.  The quarterback led the Giants to a superb win over the Patriots in the 4th quarter to push his team to 6-2.  New York is now 70.5 percent likely to make the playoffs, and maintained favored status in the division at 54.5 percent.  Philadelphia really needed to win on Monday Night to keep pace, but the loss to Chicago was very damaging.  The Eagles lost 22.5 percentage points in playoff probability, most in the conference. Michael Vick and company now make the playoffs in just 16.5 percent of simulations.  Dallas got a comfortable win over Seattle to remain in second place in the division.  Washington is the one non-contender winning the division in just 1.6 percent of simulations.

The Packers continue to roll through all their opponents, and are halfway to 16-0.  AccuScore projects that Green Bay has an eight percent chance to remain undefeated through the regular season.  Detroit has about a 60 percent chance at the playoffs.  That number would be higher, but Green Bay has such a strong hold on the projected division title that the Lions will have to get in as a Wild Card.  The path will be the same for Chicago which is on a solid three game winning streak.  The Bears gained 12.9 percentage points in probability this week, most in the NFC.  They need to keep winning however to keep up with both Detroit and Green Bay.  Minnesota’s playoff chances are almost down to 0.

New Orleans and Atlanta are heading towards a big game Sunday in Week 10.  For now, the Saints are more likely for the playoffs at 86.1 percent while the Falcons project to make the postseason 54.7 percent of the time.  Tampa Bay is 4-4, but is really not a contender having been outscored by 49 points on the year.  The Bucs have just a 4.2 percent chance to win the NFC South.  The Panthers’ playoff chances continue to march towards zero.

San Francisco is all the way up to 99.8 percent likely to win the NFC West.  At 7-1, the Niners could actually clinch a playoff spot soon with a couple more wins.  St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona combined have just 5 wins and a 1.3 percent chance to make the playoffs.

NFC	WEEK 9 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 9	WK 10	% DIFF	WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS	29.3%	42.2%	12.9%	0.9%
NEW YORK GIANTS	62.1%	70.5%	8.4%	54.5%
ATLANTA FALCONS	50.1%	54.7%	4.6%	29.4%
DALLAS COWBOYS	45.1%	49.1%	4.0%	35.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	83.2%	86.1%	2.9%	66.2%
DETROIT LIONS	57.9%	59.9%	2.0%	3.5%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	99.1%	99.8%	0.7%	99.8%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	99.7%	99.9%	0.2%	95.6%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	1.0%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.2%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	1.2%	0.8%	-0.4%	0.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	3.2%	1.1%	-2.0%	0.2%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	7.0%	3.4%	-3.6%	1.6%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	22.2%	15.2%	-7.0%	4.2%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	38.6%	16.5%	-22.1%	8.9%