If there were such thing as a “neutral court” in the NBA, the Western Conference Finals would be a virtual 50-50 match-up.  The Spurs are winning 69 percent of simulations at home while the Thunder win nearly the same percentage (67 percent) on their home floor.

The most likely scenario is a 7-game series with 34 percent of all series simulations going 7 games.  The most likely individual scenario is the Spurs in 7 (23.5 percent) followed by the Thunder in 6 (19.5 percent).  This makes sense because San Antonio will have homecourt in Game 7 while Game 6 is in Oklahoma City.

If the Thunder are going to pull off the upset they are more likely to do it in 6 games (19.5%) than in 7 so winning at least one of the first two games in San Antonio is an obvious priority.

This season both the Thunder and Spurs averaged over 103 points per game, shot over 47% from the field, and outrebounded their opponents by roughly 2 per game.  The reason why the Spurs project slightly better this year is turnovers.  The Thunder committed the most turnovers in the league (16/game) while the Spurs committed the third fewest (13.2/game).

Oklahoma City took care of the ball very well against the Lakers committing only 44 turnovers in 5 games (8.8 per game).  The Spurs do not actually force a lot of turnovers which is why their season differential was even.  In Game 1, if the Thunder commit no more than 10 turnovers they have a 50 percent chance of pulling off the upset.  If you have a 50-50 shot in each of the first 2 games then the odds are the Thunder  can get that crucial win in San Antonio.

In Vegas the Spurs are 62 percent favorites (-174) to win the series.  AccuScore has it a slightly closer 58.4 percent to 41.6 percent match-up.

FAVORED:  San Antonio
VALUE:  Oklahoma City