By Rohit Ghosh
Follow @RohitGhosh on Twitter
WARRIORS VS. CLIPPERS
Thanks in part to the recent downfall of the Los Angeles Lakers, the Golden State Warriors (41-24) and Los Angeles Clippers (45-20) have created a sort of mini-rivalry at the top of the Pacific Division. The players aren’t fond of each other, and neither are the respective fan bases. Blake Griffin continues his remarkable season as the Clippers head into Wednesday night’s matchup on an eight-game winning streak. Golden State is on its own run - winning five straight games - but will have to contain an L.A. squad that is averaging nearly 116 points per game in its previous eight games. The Warriors are coming off a 108-85 home victory over the Dallas Mavericks. Given it’s the second night of a back-to-back for Golden State, the Warriors will need to play a near-perfect game to steal this one at Staples Center.
AccuScore has the Clippers as solid 79.5 percent favorites to win, and nearly a 63 percent chance to cover the -6.5 spread. The average rounded score after 10,000 simulations is 109-99.
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Marquee Matchups
In the 111-92 loss up at Oakland in late January, Blake Griffin put up 27 points in the losing effort. He is improving at a remarkable rate, making progress week after week. A player once known for his struggles at the FT line has no such worries these days. Griffin went 9-10 from the charity stripe Monday vs the Suns. In the last 27 games, Griffin is averaging nearly 28 points per contest. In 14 regular season matchups against David Lee, Griffin (5-9) is averaging 22.1 points (53% FG) and 10.2 rebounds, including 3 turnovers per game.
In Stephen Curry’s last six games against the L.A. Clippers, he’s averaging 24 points per game but more importantly, shooting 64 percent from beyond the arc (28-45). The Warriors are projected to attempt seven more three-pointers than the Clippers Wednesday night - just a few makes can transfer all the momentum towards the Warriors. The Clippers are No. 1 in the league in three-point defense, holding opponents to just 32.9 percent shooting from the three-point line.
Projected Leaders
Blake Griffin: 27 points (55% FG), 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnovers
Chris Paul: 20 points (46% FG), 12 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 turnovers
David Lee: 14 points (49% FG), 8 rebounds, 3 assists
Stephen Curry: 17 points (45% FG, at least 2 three-pointers made), 7 assists, 2 steals
Betting Trends
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 5 games. AccuScore gives GSW a 37.3% chance to cover +6.5 spread.
• The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
• The Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Clippers.
• The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. West teams.
• Coming off a win (LAC won Monday vs PHX), the Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
Prediction
It’s tough not to go with the home team, especially when the road team is on the second night of a back-to-back. The Warriors might be able to keep up in the first half, but tired legs should play a factor in the second half. Clippers by 8.
