Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets: Game 5

The Portland Trail Blazers haven’t advanced to the second round of the NBA Playoffs in 14 years. Up 3-1 in their best-of-seven series with the Houston Rockets, Portland has a chance to end that streak Wednesday night. After losing another OT thriller in game 4 (123-120), the Rockets must win three games in a row to avoid the first-round upset. Even with Howard shooting 53.4 percent from the field, nearly 64 percent at the free-throw line and averaging 3.0 blocks, the Rockets find themselves in a win-or-go-home situation.

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AccuScore has the Houston Rockets as overwhelming 78 percent favorites to win Wednesday night’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 114-105, with Houston having a 64 percent chance of covering the -5.5 spread. There is a 60.4 percent chance the total combined score goes over 213.5. Both teams have a comparable probability at a close win (4 points or less), but Houston has nearly six times the chance at a big win (10 points or more) than the Blazers.



AccuScore’s Super computer has star-rated picks against the spread and on Over/Unders every other NBA playoff game with free live odds. See: NBA Playoffs Odds and Expert Picks

Betting Trends

• The Blazers are 8-1 straight up (SU) in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Blazers’ last 5 games.
• The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
• The Blazers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The Rockets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The Rockets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Rockets’ last 13 games.
• The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Projected Leaders

LaMarcus Aldridge: 26 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block
Damian Lillard: 18 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds
James Harden: 26 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds
Dwight Howard: 18 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks

What to Watch For

In two of the three Houston losses in the series, the Rockets were up at halftime. According to TeamRankings.com, the Blazers are No. 3 in the league in second half margin, compared to No. 12 for the Rockets. The Blazers, behind the leadership of LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, have consistently sustained their level of play for the full duration of the game. Among teams in the top half of first half and second half margin, Houston has one of the biggest drops in margin from the first half to second half (+3.5 FH -> +0.6 SH).

James Harden is shooting 35 percent from the field in the series, and just 26.8 percent from beyond the arc. Despite Howard being both consistent and efficient, the Rockets haven’t been able to find a strategy to get both he and Harden going in an efficient manner. Harden shot 9-21 from inside the three-point line in game four and 3-11 beyond it. Expect Harden to be extra-aggressive early on to set the tempo for the Rockets. Rather than iso-heavy sets with Harden, multiple pick-and-roll situations will get Wesley Matthews switched off him.

Heading into game five, Nicolas Batum has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 5:1, tallying 20 assists in the series with just 4 turnovers. AccuScore projects 5 assists and 3 turnovers for Batum in game five.