By Jonathan Lee
July 9, 2012

Orlando Trading Dwight Howard to Brooklyn a Clear Mistake

Dwight Howard is on the verge of being sent to the Nets as part of a multi-team deal that creates another super team in the Eastern Conference.  Orlando has been held hostage by Howard for more than a year, and is now giving in to his demands by sending him to Brooklyn for a well below market package that guarantees mediocrity for years to come.

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The proposed framework of the deal has been reported by various outlets looks something like this:

Brooklyn gets: Dwight Howard, Jason Richardson, and Earl Clark
Orlando gets: Brook Lopez, Damion James, Sheldon Williams, Luke Walton, plus three first round picks
Cleveland gets: Quentin Richardson, Sundiata Gaines, Kris Humphries (1 year deal), $3 million, and a first round pick from the Nets
Fourth team (reportedly LAC) gets: MarShon Brooks in exchange for sending a protected pick to Orlando

This deal makes zero sense is so many ways for the Magic.  The deal is clearly not the best Orlando can do talent-wise.  The trade packages offered by Houston and especially Los Angeles with Andrew Bynum are clearly preferable to this watered down offer from Brooklyn.  This trade essentially leaves the Magic with Brook Lopez three or four first round picks that have almost zero chance of being in the lottery, and are more likely to be somewhere in the 20s.

The deal is far worse than the one vetoed by David Stern that sent Chris Paul to the Lakers, and even the last robbery of a deal that ended up sending Marc Gasol and Kwame Brown to the Grizzlies and Pau Gasol to the Lakers.  Lopez will need to be resigned for a deal that will be at the maximum or close to it given the current state of the free agent market.  He is a nice player, but clearly isn’t a franchise type of guy given his status as an inefficient 7-footer that doesn’t rebound nearly well enough for his size.  Lopez’s best season was easily his rookie season.  His field goal percentage has dropped under .500 each season since, and his rebounding rate has declined significantly.

Trading for Andrew Bynum easily looks like the best option for the Magic.  Bynum is an odd personality and has stated that he wouldn’t sign an extension in Orlando much like Howard stated he wouldn’t with any other team but Brooklyn.  Any NBA team should ignore those statements because simple math behooves them to do so.  The CBA is structured so that teams can keep their star players.  Bynum would be sacrificing a great deal of money to leave as a free agent.  It would be a worthy gamble to take him on.  Bynum is easily better than Lopez with far superior shooting and rebounding numbers despite a lower usage role.

Another puzzling part of this proposed deal is that Orlando sent away Jason and Quentin Richardson, both players that can still contribute and didn’t even end up acquiring MarShon Brooks.  The Magic also somehow managed to keep Hedo Turkoglu and his massive contract on the roster as well.  Combine this blockbuster with the trade of Ryan Anderson and extension for Jameer Nelson and it’s clear that the Magic have no long term vision, and are basically just spinning their wheels.  This creates another monolith within their own conference that they will be unlikely to surpass as long as Howard and Deron Williams remain together.  Houston and Golden State have expressed willingness to  gamble on a one-year rental, and could easily offer similar packages or better than the one that is about to be accepted.

The Eastern Conference has become a much tougher landscape with Miami and Boston caught in an arms race, and Orlando helping to create another super team in Brooklyn.  Brook Lopez and four late first round picks will not create a contender any time soon and banishes the Magic to the bottom of the standings for years to come.

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