AccuScore’s NBA REGULAR SEASON FUTURES
AccuScore had a strong MLB Season generating nearly +3000 units on Side Values and our pre-season forecast hit season win totals at a 60.7% accuracy clip. We are looking forward to having similar great success in the NBA 2012-2013 Season. We are coming off two phenomenal NBA seasons generating industry best profits ( Read More) and we are looking forward to having MLB-like success on our NBA Futures.
We took the AccuScore season forecast for total wins and compared them to the current betting lines. A negative DIFF value are Under picks and the positive ones are Over picks. While this is somewhat of an arbitrary value we do not really think a DIFF between -1.5 and +1.5 should be picks.
Here are a few things to consider:
STRONG UNDER PICKS
Golden State Warriors – If Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut were guaranteed to play 70+ games then AccuScore would have the Warriors line right at 36.5, but given that Bogut is still not recovered and Curry has proven to be fragile we have the line at 29.9. If you have faith in the Warriors’ ability to stay healthy then do not pick the Under.
Oklahoma City Thunder – The team certainly is talented enough to win 60, but they won 71.2% of their 2011-2012 games. That extrapolates to 58 wins over an 82 game schedule. There are many reasons to believe the rest of their division (Denver, Utah, Portland and Minnesota) will be improved this year so a 55 win season seems more likely.
Detroit Pistons – The Pistons line of 31.5 is exactly what they would have based on last year’s 37.9% win percentage. The addition of Correy Maggette could help, but he also is highly injury prone and Andre Drummond has played well in the pre-season but he’s still likely to be a bench player and not someone who will make a first year impact.
Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs won 31.8% last year which extrapolates to 26 wins. AccuScore is projecting an improvement to 27 wins, but still under the 30.5 line. If you feel Kyrie Irving in Year 2 can elevate the team then avoid the Under.
STRONG OVER PICKS
New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis is a truly dominant defensive player with impressive offensive potential. Even with a lot of injuries the Hornets won 31.8% (=26 wins). Quality rookie big men can have a +10 win improvement on a team. Maybe the AccuScore line of 37.8 is too optimistic, but the line of +1.5 improvement that Vegas has set seems way too low.
Milwaukee Bucks – The Bucks don’t get much attention but they did win 47% of their games (equals 38.5 wins) in ’11-12. They have Monta Ellis fully integrated into the team, have a promising young F Ersan Ilyasova and they picked up Samuel Dalembert (a good rebounder and shot blocker). They also benefit from the Derrick Rose injury hurting division rival Chicago. An improvement on a 47% win percentage seems in order.
Minnesota Timberwolves – Before injuries the team was humming along at a .500 pace. If Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love weren’t starting injured the team might be in line for a 46 win season. ESPN has published a 56 win season. The Wolves added Andrei Kirilenko who played great overseas and in the Olympics and Brandon Roy. AccuScore predicts Minnesota to win just over 50% of their games, not the under 50% that Vegas predicts.
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