By Jonathan Lee
The second round of the NBA playoffs is already underway with Miami and Boston holding 1-0 leads over the Pacers and Sixers respectively. The Western Conference took a bit longer to decide the first round with the Lakers and Clippers needing seven games to advance to this stage. Both Los Angeles teams are severe underdogs with bettors and AccuScore simulations expecting a Spurs vs. Thunder match-up in the conference finals.
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EASTERN CONFERENCE (start of series)
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Miami
|
-785
|
86.6%
|
71.1%
|
|
Indiana
|
628
|
13.4%
|
28.9%
|
FAVORED: Miami
VALUE: Indiana
Miami showed in Game 1 why it was such a big favorite in simulations and by bettors. The Pacers played fairly well and still were no match on the road. The Chris Bosh injury in Game 1 does complicate matters, but the Heat are still the clear favorite.
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Boston
|
-198
|
64.9%
|
70.6%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
178
|
35.1%
|
29.4%
|
FAVORED: Boston
VALUE: Boston
The Celtics are clearly the better team according to both AccuScore and the betting lines. The one concern for Boston is health with just one day off between every game except Game 7. Fatigue is an issue for the Big Three, and Avery Bradley and Ray Allen are still recovering from lingering injuries. Really though the only hope for Philadelphia is for yet another star player for the opposition missing the series a la Derrick Rose.
WESTERN CONFERENCE (start of series)
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
-450
|
79.9%
|
82.1%
|
|
Los Angeles
|
385
|
20.1%
|
17.9%
|
FAVORED: Oklahoma City
VALUE: Oklahoma City
The Thunder are basically 4-to-1 favorites to beat the Lakers by both the line and simulations. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs the Lakers won in the first round in 2010 on the way to the championship.
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
San Antonio
|
-2300
|
93.5%
|
90.8%
|
|
Los Angeles
|
1400
|
6.5%
|
9.2%
|
FAVORED: San Antonio
VALUE: Los Angeles
This is by far the biggest mismatch of the second round with the Spurs winning nearly 91 percent of the time in simulations. In fact the only bigger mismatch of the entire playoffs was the Spurs against the Jazz in the first round. The Clippers are also hamstrung by injury issues to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. L.A. has virtually zero shot if either player misses time during this series.
