By Jonathan Lee
While most people view the top four seeds – Chicago, Miami, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio – as heavy favorites in the NBA playoffs the dynamics of the shortened season make anything possible. The last shortened season produced an eight seed (New York) that sprang three upsets to reach the Finals. Is a repeat surprise possible this year? We will find out as the postseason starts on Saturday.
Every pick for each playoff game can be found on the NBA expert picks page. Not yet a member of AccuScore? Join now and use coupon code "NBAPLAYOFFS" to get 25% off an annual membership and get every pick for the Stanley Cup playoffs, the NBA playoffs, European soccer, baseball, and college football and the NBA.
AccuScore has projected each first round series comparing the computer simulated winning percentage (Acc%) against the betting line and the translated winning percentage (line%). If the AccuScore line is higher than the translated betting line that results in a value pick for the series.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Chicago
|
-1250
|
90.4%
|
80.8%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
915
|
9.6%
|
19.2%
|
Favored: Chicago
Value: Philadelphia
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Miami
|
-900
|
87.9%
|
82.6%
|
|
New York
|
704
|
12.1%
|
17.4%
|
Favored: Miami
Value: New York
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Boston
|
-185
|
63.3%
|
65.1%
|
|
Atlanta
|
166
|
36.7%
|
34.9%
|
Favored: Boston
Value: Boston
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Indiana
|
-880
|
87.7%
|
72.7%
|
|
Orlando
|
691
|
12.3%
|
27.3%
|
Favored: Indiana
Value: Orlando
WESTERN CONFERENCE
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Memphis
|
-140
|
57.0%
|
61.9%
|
|
LA Clippers
|
127
|
43.0%
|
38.1%
|
Favored: Memphis
Value: Memphis
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
San Antonio
|
-2000
|
92.5%
|
92.5%
|
|
Utah
|
1200
|
7.5%
|
7.5%
|
Favored: San Antonio
Value: No Pick
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
-475
|
80.6%
|
73.0%
|
|
Dallas
|
404
|
19.4%
|
27.0%
|
Favored: Oklahoma City
Value: Dallas
|
SERIES
|
LINE
|
LINE%
|
ACC%
|
|
LA Lakers
|
-227
|
67.8%
|
59.6%
|
|
Denver
|
203
|
32.2%
|
40.4%
|
Favored: LA Lakers
Value: Denver
Memphis and Boston are the only two teams be both the favored team and the value play according to the computers. Amazingly, the AccuScore line and the betting line are identical for the San Antonio Spurs. Most of the underdogs hold value even though they are longshots to win because the favorites tend to get overbet by the public.
