Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NBA Opening Night Preview
The 2012-2013 NBA regular season gets underway tonight, and there are a few fun games scheduled: Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, and Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wizards-Cavaliers
The regular season tips off with the Wizards heading down to Cleveland to face the Cavs in a match-up that may not have the league’s biggest stars, but one that should stay close until the final buzzer. We’ll get a chance to see point guard Kyrie Irving take the floor, but will have to wait a few more weeks to see Wizards point guard John Wall due to a knee injury.
Irving – who averaged 18.5 points, 5.4 assists and 3.7 rebounds a year ago – is projected to get 21 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds according to AccuScore’s simulations. The Wizards will be without Wall as well as Nene down low, which probably means a big night for Irving. He willll most likely be matched up against A.J. Price, and should have no trouble at all getting off to a good start. Price started six of the Wizards’ eight preseason games averaging 9.6 points.
Rookie guard Bradley Beal, who has averaged 11.3 points per game in the preseason, should see some quality minutes at the shooting guard spot where he will split time with Jordan Crawford. AccuScore’s simulations project 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists for Beal, and a shade above 11 points for Crawford. Although Crawford averaged 24 points per game against the Cavs last year, his shooting percentage (< 40 percent) continues to be an issue for both the Washington coaching staff, and fantasy owners around the country.
AccuScore’s simulations project a 2-point victory (97-95) for the Cleveland Cavaliers with the Cavs covering the spread (-5) only 43.1 percent of the time. The Cavs win in simulations over 60 percent of the time. The data also went over the over/under of 188.5 over 58 percent of the time, which tells us more about the poor defenses of the teams than any so-called ‘offensive firepower’.
My prediction- Cavs, 98-91
Celtics-Heat
This year’s NBA on TNT broadcast kicks off with a true marquee match-up: Celtics at the Heat. If you recall, the Heat beat the Celtics in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals in Game 7 to go on to the Finals, and ultimately win the championship. We’ve heard numerous times that there was some bad blood between the Celtics and guard Ray Allen upon his decision to head down to South Beach, and the best part of this game will be seeing Allen face his previous team.
Although AccuScore’s simulations project only 10 points for Allen (one three point basket), I do think the Heat try to remind Boston what they lost in Allen. Once he enters the game, I wouldn’t be surprised if James or Wade finds him a couple quick corner threes.
At the end of the day, this game comes down to how well Chris Bosh plays. We know what to expect from guys like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, and Kevin Garnett. Bosh has to find a way to get some buckets in the paint, establish himself early, and most importantly, rebound. Strong production from him most likely means a more tired Garnett, and over the course of the game, that could become a bigger and bigger factor.
The simulations project 25 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists for LeBron, and 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists for Wade. On the other side, the simulations project 19 points and 5 rebounds for Pierce, 13 points and 8 rebounds for KG, and 12 points, 10 assists for Rondo.
All the data points to a Miami victory- they win the simulations over 75 percent of the time with a score of 98-91, and get a big win (10 points or more) approximately 42 percent of the time. The Heat cover the spread (-6.5) 56 percent of the time. They will be at home, receive their championship rings from last year, and be ready to fire on all cylinders.
My prediction- Celtics, 96-93
Mavericks-Lakers
Both the Mavericks and Lakers enter the season with squads that look very different compared to last season. Dallas failed miserably in their title defense last year, and the Bryant-Gasol Lakers have stalled in the second round for two consecutive years.
Tonight’s match-up looks to favor the Lakers mostly due to forward Dirk Nowitzki still recovering from a recent knee surgery. Kobe Bryant will be a game-time decision with a strained and bruised right foot. While much of the attention leading up to the game will be on Bryant’s status, the Lakers should be just fine without him tonight against a depleted Dallas team. Center Chris Kaman will be out for Dallas due to a right calf strain foricing Eddy Curry into the starting spot.
Yes, you read that right. Curry will be starting and going up against new Laker Dwight Howard. Curry has only played 24 games in the last three seasons, and started just one. With that said, we can expect a big night from Howard regardless of who is guarding him. AccuScore’s simulations project 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks for Howard tonight. Depending on Kobe’s status, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dwight starts the season with a 20-10-4 game.
This will be the first time we will get to see Nash, Pau, and Dwight play extended minutes together on the court. It is going to be a pick and roll buffet if Kobe doesn’t suit up. Nash is projected to get 15 points and 12 assists, and Gasol is projected for 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks.
For Dallas, the production will be more balanced as they’ll need a complete team effort to get the win. Guards Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo will shoulder the majority of the load on offense while hoping to get some quality production from Elton Brand and Shawn Marion. Mayo is projected to go for 14 points on 13 shots, but his scoring projection seems low given that Dirk’s offensive production needs to be replaced.
The Lakers are 17-3 in their last 20 season openers, and I expect them to get another win tonight. In AccuScore’s simulations, the Lakers covered the spread (-8.5) 53 percent of the time, and got a big win (10 points or more) 49 percent of the time. The average score in the simulations is 99-90.
My prediction- Lakers, 92-85
