The NBA old guard – San Antonio and Boston – officially gave way to the new guard in the NBA that will match Oklahoma City with Miami.  The Thunder came back from a two game deficit to win four straight against the Spurs.  The Heat had to come back from a 3-2 deficit themselves winning the final two games over the Celtics.

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AccuScore projections show Oklahoma City is the better team on paper with the Thunder winning more than two-thirds of simulations.  There is a very low likelihood of either team pulling off a sweep at just 11 percent.  The Finals features a 2-3-2 format meaning a sweep would require winning at least two road games for both teams.  The home-road format also heavily impacts the series projections.  The Thunder will have both Games 6 and 7 at home, and the two most likely individual scenarios are both OKC wins at home.  The most likely Heat scenario is a win in 5 games because the middle 3 games are all at home.

The Thunder are favored in Vegas but the posted price of -150 translates only to a 58.8 winning percentage.  AccuScore has the Thunder as the heavier favorite meaning there is a 7.4 percentage point edge with OKC.