By Jonathan Lee
July 5, 2012

The first big domino of the NBA offseason fell when the Nets decided to acquire Joe Johnson and not wait for a potential deal for Dwight Howard.  Brooklyn acquired an All-Star shooting guard in Johnson to pair with the recently resigned Deron Williams in the backcourt.  The move was able to happen as Atlanta dumped the $90 million still remaining on Johnson’s contract for a bunch of expiring deals including Jordan Farmar, Johan Petro, Anthony Morrow, and Jordan Williams along with DeShawn Stevenson via sign-and-trade.

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This deal could turn into a massive problem down the line for the Nets given Johnson’s age and contract.  The same can be said of forward Gerald Wallace.  At least for next season however Williams, Johnson, and Wallace should form a formidable punch at the 1, 2, and 3 spots.

The trade improves the Nets by over 3 wins over a full 82-game schedule, but it still doesn’t push them into the playoffs according to the AccuScore computers.  Brooklyn makes the playoffs 26.5 percent of the time.  That represents a large 8.7 percent boost, but more moves will need to be made in order to surround the star backcourt with help particularly in the frontcourt.

In conjunction with the Johnson deal new Atlanta GM Danny Ferry sent underachieving small forward Marvin Williams to Utah in exchange for point guard Devin Harris.  Utah in turn reacquired guard Mo Williams for helping send Lamar Odom back to the Clippers.

These two moves alone prove that Ferry means business in molding Atlanta into a contender.  He traded away two productive players, but both had poor contracts.  Both players also had spent several years in Atlanta and the Hawks had never reached true title contention.  Sending away both Johnson and Williams still didn’t make the Hawks significantly worse on the court either according to simulations.  Atlanta still makes the playoffs 73 percent of the time, and are now in position to be serious players for free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Utah quite frankly surprised according to our computers this past season slipping into the 8th seed.  The Jazz were exposed as non-contenders however getting summarily swept out of the first round by the Thunder.  Adding Mo and Marvin Williams does improve the Jazz on the court, but the baseline projection is probably much lower than most fans might think.  AccuScore views Utah as a lottery team for the upcoming season, and while these trades actually improved the team by more than two wins that still makes them only 14 percent likely to make the playoffs again.

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