Analyst's College Basketball Picks: March 9, 2017

Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Miami vs UNC | March 9, 9:00 AM PT on ESPN

No. 9 Miami got a nice win over Syracuse Wednesday morning to advance to the next round of the ACC Tournament and match up with No. 1 seed North Carolina. UNC opened as a 7.5-to-8-point favorite, with the total set at 140.

Miami had a nice performance on the boards against Syracuse, winning the offensive rebound battle 9-4. In a game that was decided by just five points (62-57), each extra possession makes that much more of an impact on the final results.

UNC is dominant on the glass, but potentially the one time they struggled rebounding the ball was back in January vs Miami. UNC lost that game 77-62 down in Coral Gables with Miami's zone defense proving to be a nightmare for Roy Williams' offense.

Betting Trends

• Miami is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 6 Thursday games.
• Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games.
• UNC is 19-7-2 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games.
• UNC is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
• The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.

Analyst's Pick:

Keep an eye on UNC's Theo Pinson. He didn't play in the team's last matchup against Miami and should make enough of a difference to change the outcome. UNC wins, and covers the 8-point spread. Miami will have tired legs on the back-to-back.

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Duke vs Louisville | March 9, 11:00 AM PT on ESPN

Louisville could really benefit from a big-time neutral-court win late in the season as they head into Thursday's matchup with Duke. The Cards will look to bolster their Big Dance resume with a convincing victory over the Blue Devils. Vegas opened the line with Louisville favored by 1 point and the total yet to be set, at the time of publication.

Duke came up short in the regular season matchup between these two sides, giving up 21 three-pointers as four different Louisville players scored in double figures.

Betting Trends

• Duke is 4-16-2 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS win.
• Duke is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
• Duke is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.
• Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games.
• Louisville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• Louisville is 29-13 ATS in their last 42 neutral site games.

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Analyst's Pick:

It really comes down to which Duke team shows up Thursday. Injuries and other distractions have made Coach K's team uncharacteristically inconsistent this season. If their outside shots are going in early, they're close to unbeatable; if they're not connecting, the Blue Devils have been easily pushed around.

Louisville's the better defensive team, holding opponents to approximately 39 percent shooting from the field. The Cards win.

Chicago State vs New Mexico State | March 9, 4:30 PM PT

These kinds of games always catch our attention because of the absurd spreads. The Cougars from Chicago State just aren't that good and they head into Thursday's matchup as a 19.5-to-20-point underdog.

It's tournament season, so no team should lose by that much, right? Not so fast.

Chicago State's only conference win came all the way back in January vs Utah Valley. They've lost 10 games in a row and don't look equipped to put up much of a fight Thursday. New Mexico State has two wins over Chicago State already this season, by 16 and 35 points each, respectively.

New Mexico St. is 6-0 straight up (SU) against Chicago St. over the last three seasons.

Analyst's Pick:
It's tough to give up this many points, but New Mexico should cruise to a 20-plus point victory.

Louisville at North Carolina: Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Louisville at North Carolina: College Hoops

Wednesday features a marquee ACC matchup with No. 8 North Carolina hosting No. 7 Louisville in Chapel Hill. UNC enters the matchup ranked No. 1 in the ACC, but recent struggles in February on the defensive end opens the door for a Louisvile squad riding a three-game winning streak.

UNC opened as a 4.5-point favorite at home.

What to Watch For

Offense vs Defense: This matchup features a Carolina team putting up nearly 87 points per game and a Louisville defense limiting its opponents to just 64 points. One has to give Wednesday night and given the track record the Heels have at home, it's tough to pick the underdog.

This season Louisville is 4-5 against AP Top 25 teams, with wins against Purdue, UK, Indiana, Duke, and losses to Baylor, Virginia twice, Notre Dame and FSU.

Dang, Deng: Louisville's sophomore standout Deng Adel has to be a big night for them to stay competitive on the road at UNC. He's been a bit inconsistent this season, but has found rhythm in 2017, scoring in double-digits in eight of his last 10 games.

He has struggled noticeably this season against ranked opponents and as a result, continues to be the team's x-factor in big matchups like this one. On a good night, he gives Louisville a deep threat they don't otherwise have, shooting close to 35 percent from beyond the arc.

Other than Deng, keep an eye out for Junior guard Quentin Snider to make an immediate impact. He's averaging 12.1 ppg and 4.1 apg, but has been on a tear since returning from his hip injury.

Theo Pinson, Matchup Nightmare: UNC's Theo Pinsen is going to be a tough cover for Louisville -- or any opponent for that matter. He was put in the starting lineup two games ago, averaging 10.5 points, 1.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 25.5 minutes per game.

He missed the first 16 games of the season with a broken foot, but that's all old news with his play of late. Able to play the guard and forward spots, Pinson gives UNC a certain level of versatility other schools just don't have. He's too big for a traditional guard to defend him, and he's too quick for a forward to contain him.

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Final Word

UNC has the edge at home, no doubt, but Louisville has plenty of size and athleticism to make this a close one. They'll compete on the boards, a facet of the game UNC usually dominates their opponents in. Louisville is top-5 in the nation in offensive rebounds; UNC is No. 2 in offensive rebounding, No. 13 in defensive .

Expect a close one -- especially in the first half -- but road games in the ACC are tough, no matter who you are. UNC margin of victory at home in ACC play this season? +25.2 pts/game.

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