Accuscore Champions League Expert Analysis: Chelsea vs Barcelona

UEFA Champions League Picks: Chelsea - Barcelona

UEFA Champions League returns with a midweek fixture from London, where Chelsea hosts Spanish behemoths Barcelona on Tuesday evening. The second leg, played in Barcelona takes place March 14^th.

Chelsea has seen better days in their domestic competition, Premier League. The reigning champions currently sit fourth, already 19 points behind the leaders Manchester City and Antonio Conte’s seat seems to be shaking already – only nine months after securing the title. Chelsea’s record from the past games is not flattering, with losses to Bournemouth and Watford still hurting despite expected 3-0 win over WBA the previous weekend and 4-0 victory in FA Cup over Hull this weekend. Tuesday’s opposition is, however, on a completely different level and poses another big threat for Conte and his troops.

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Barcelona has had a season no one was expecting and silenced their doubters in a convincing manner. They’ve taken the lead in La Liga by going unbeaten for 24 games now, with a confident 7-point lead on top, with Atletico Madrid chasing and Real Madrid already 17 points behind. As of late they’ve dropped points to both Getafe and Espanyol, so it’s not just a walk in the park domestically either.

In Champions League Chelsea came through with 11 points from six games, winning three, drawing two and losing once. At home they drew with Atletico Madrid 1-1 and AS Roma 3-3, while beating the walkover Qarabag 6-0. Chelsea scored 16 goals in the group stage, but removing Qarabag from the equation it doesn’t look too pretty: 6 goals for and 8 against. Funnily enough, they’ve also gotten rid of 2^nd best goalscorer with two goals, Michy Batshuayi, while Eden Hazard leads the team with three. The replacement forward from Arsenal, Oliver Giroud is available, although unlikely to fit in Conte’s starting XI.

Barcelona completed the group stage with flying colors, winning their group with 14 points ahead of Juventus with 11. Barca won four and drew twice, on the road against Juventus and Olympiakos. Interestingly enough, they scored only once in those three road games, when beating Sporting 0-1. At home they went 3-0-0 with 8:1 goal ratio. Leo Messi leads the team in scoring and is looking for support at this stage, with Luis Suarez being shut down for the most part of the group stage. New acquisition Philippe Coutinho is ineligible for UCL after featuring with Liverpool earlier in the season.

Injuries/suspensions: Chelsea – David Luiz (out), Barcelona – Philippe Coutinho (ineligible)

Probable lineups in Accuscore simulations courtesy of  Rotowire

Accuscore’s Analysis

In Accuscore’s simulations Barcelona is clear favorite to take the win at Stamford Bridge. Despite their very conservative results on the road, the statistical advantage over Chelsea is overwhelming. In a low scoring game the likelihood of a draw is 29.3%, some 2% more than the odds would indicate. Barcelona takes the advantage by winning on the road with 50.6%, indicating a slight value compared to odds around 48%. Chelsea only wins 20.1% of the simulations at home.

Neither team has played very high scoring games this year in the Champions League. In simulations, the score remains low as well: Barcelona hits the net on average 1.44 times, while the hosts Chelsea are stuck with 0.77 goals on average. Only Barcelona’s Leo Messi is more likely to score than not, with approximately 54.5% likelihood to add to his goal total. Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata leads his team in scoring percentage, but the probability is as low as 26.5%.

Have a look at Accuscore's analysis on the UEFA Champions League 2017/2018 1st Knockout round overall here!

Analyst Picks

Chelsea’s struggles domestically are likely to somewhat reflect to Champions League as well and Barcelona’s excellent form makes it a tough game for Antonio Conte’s men. While the first leg is always tricky, it’s more likely that Barcelona will run away as victors from this one.

Barcelona to win:+120 | 2.20 (45.45%) - Accuscore odds -102 | 1.98 (50.6%)

Draw:  +260 | 3.60 (27.78%) - Accuscore odds +241 | 3.41 (29.73%)

Total Under 2.5 goals:+108 | 2.08 (48.08%) – Accuscore odds -181 | 1.55 (64.52%)

Scoring

Leo Messi – Accuscore odds -119 | 1.84 (54.5%)

Luis Suarez, Alvaro Morata– Accuscore odds +278 | 3.78 (26.5%)

Accuscore's Champions League 2017/2018 - 1st Knockout Round

Expert Analysis and Predictions for UEFA Champions League 1st Knockout Round

It is time once again to set our sights down the road and make some bold predictions on UEFA Champions League playoffs starting tonight. Group stage already proved that there is a little bit of change in the air, as such domestic league powerhouses as Atletico Madrid and Napoli were kicked down to Europa League. The reign of big money clubs seems to be in the books at least according to the odds, with Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain being made favorites to capture the trophy.

Always intriguing first round draw drew together a couple of the giants, PSG with Real Madrid and Chelsea with Barcelona. On the other hand, pairing of Shaktar Donetsk of Ukraine and AS Roma means there’ll be at least one surprise inclusion in top-8 this time around.

AccuScore provides predictions and analysis for each and every Champions League Knockout Stage Game, all the way to the Final in June!

After simulating each matchup 10 000 times, we have a clear view on how the 1^st knockout round is most likely to finish. There are, of course, plenty of variables that can change before the kick-off and especially the result of the first leg will influence a lot how the second one will play out. With all the scenarios accounted for, here is how the simulation engine predicts the 1^st knockout round to go:

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Expert Analysis – Part 1/2

Juventus – Tottenham

The Italians went all the way to the final last year, only to lose heavily to Real Madrid. This season they’ve not been as impressive and are actually only 2^nd in Serie A, one point behind Napoli. The team is aging rapidly, but the defense is still top-notch even if offensively Juventus tends to stagnate and lack both speed and flair. Yet Juventus will be hard to break down and it’s the first big test for inexperienced Spurs team. Albeit playing creative and dynamic football, Spurs might lack the overall quality to challenge Juventus – but we’ve seen bigger surprises. In simulations Juventus goes to top-8 with 61% probability.

FC Basel – Manchester City

Basel provided the first surprise in the group staged, by upending CSKA Moscow and Benfica to reach 2^nd seeding after Manchester United – who they also beat along the way. Despite impressive results in group stage, unlucky draw in the first round ends their dream run. Manchester City seems unstoppable at the moment in Premier League and with plenty of experience from tough situations, Pep Guardiola knows exactly how to avoid any complacency. No chance for Basel according to simulations, in which City progresses with 78% likelihood.

FC Porto – Liverpool

Portuguese teams Porto and Benfica seem to take turns in appearing in UCL knockout rounds. This season Porto is yet to lose in their domestic league, but they needed a bit of luck to reach 2^nd place in the UCL group as Leipzig lost to leaders Besiktas to giftwrap Porto with the seeding. Porto played well though and were especially efficient offensively. But so are their opponents Liverpool, coached by Jürgen Klopp who has a proven track record of taking an underdog all the way by scoring more goals than the opponent. Porto is likely to lose a scoring competition, but goals we are likely to see. Liverpool heads to top-8 with 72% probability.

Real Madrid – PSG

The dreaded matchup for both teams if there ever was one. The reigning champions have had a deplorable season so far, having succumbed to 4^th in La Liga a staggering 17 points behind Barcelona. With all hope lost domestically, then the UCL draw pits them against PSG, who are itching to set the record straight after last season’s mind-boggling loss to Real’s compatriots (thus far) Barcelona. PSG’s arms race has continued and they’ve once again ruled the domestic league, so it is all-in for Champions League. Real would need to man up in order to match the hungry PSG and it definitely hasn’t looked that way. In simulations, PSG is a clear favorite to progress with 62% probability.

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Accuscore's UEFA Champions League 2019/2020 - 1st Knockout Stage

UCL 1st Knockout Stage - Probabilities

The UEFA Champions League returns with the 1^st knockout stage and 16 teams remaining. No major upsets were seen in the group stage, but a couple of surprising sides are featured in the round of 16. Last season’s semifinalists Ajax were left stranded in the group stage, but it was rather expected after being harvested clean of their most talented players during the summer by the bigger clubs. Notably, all the big five leagues of Europe are represented, but none of the smaller nations made the cut this time. We have four teams from Spain and England, three teams from Germany and Italy and two teams From France – no Portugal, no Netherlands.

1st Knockout Stage

The first knockout stage is played over two legs with the goal aggregate rules applying. Using Accuscore’s simulation engine we are able to determine the most likely outcome of both of the legs, although the setting might change depending on the results of the first game. Regardless, here are the most likely candidates to go through to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League 2019/2020.

Atletico Madrid – Liverpool

The reigning champions take on the Spanish La Liga challengers, who have struggled especially in the attacking front this season. Liverpool have been dominant in domestic Premier League and have yet to lose a game. They had some issues in group stages, but when the stakes get higher, they are likely to add some steam. Liverpool to progress with 78% probability.

Dortmund – PSG

The French giants have some of the best players in the world at their disposal and better balanced team overall than in many previous occasions. Winning the Champions League is their only target, as they’ve done it domestically enough times already. Dortmund puts up a good challenge, but the quality is lacking just a bit and the young stars gain good experience but can’t quite deliver. PSG moves on with 67% probability.

Atalanta – Valencia

Two dark horses drawn together, Atalanta has been a spark in Serie A playing all-out-attack football and scoring aplenty, taking them fourth in the league. Valencia have had their issues in La Liga and are only seventh, but the team is feisty and spirited. Atalanta’s attack is likely to win this one though and the Italians head to top-8 with 61% probability.

Tottenham – RB Leipzig

Last season’s surprise runner-ups vs the up and coming challengers. Things went wrong with Spurs early on and Jose Mourinho is now in charge – it looks better but missing Harry Kane is an issue. Leipzig is challenging for title domestically but they have an excellent chance to oust Spurs and go to top 8 in UCL. The team is full of quality if lacking some depth. Leipzig will upset Spurs with 58% probability.

Chelsea – Bayern München

Chelsea have been only decent this season, with Frank Lampard unable to bring in replacing players for Eden Hazard or anyone else. The team is lacking in many positions and prolific striker Tammy Abraham might be out as well. Bayern is full of talent again and concentrate fully on winning the UCL. Robert Lewandowski Is red hot and the team is gelled well together. Bayern progresses with 80% probability.

Napoli – Barcelona

Both teams have had their issues domestically, but Napoli is in deeper waters. Their managerial change didn’t help and the team is not looking any better. They have talent, but the system seems to be faulty. Barcelona made a surprising change in management and are back to their “old” ways, dominating games. Only issue is the thin squad, will they have enough energy to battle in all fronts? We think so and Barcelona heads to quarter finals with 74% probability.

Lyon – Juventus

Juventus have had a scare in Serie A, with the challengers looking to usurp the title, but they are back on top again. The team is as good as ever, if getting a little old – might be one of the last chances to take home the coveted trophy with this team core. Lyon has had a disastrous season and they’re far off from making it to UCL again next season. Offensively sound team lacks structure and should present no danger to Juventus, who are heading to top 8 with 81% probability.

Real Madrid – Manchester City

Probably the most even of the pairings, two of the world’s most expensive teams face each other. Real has done better in domestic league, but had issues in group stages. Manchester City is marred by non-footballing matters and this might be their only shot at UCL in a couple of years. Both teams are full of quality, experience and depth, so it’s likely to come down to goal differences and maybe even away goals and overtime. City’s star players have had a bit more pump this season, so Manchester is slightly more likely to progress with 59% probability.

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Accuscore’s UEFA Champions League 2019/2020 – Team Rankings and Winning Odds

Liverpool favorites, the usual suspects challenging

 

The Champions League is back with a blast with 16 teams remaining in the most prestigious competition in European football. The coveted prize was won last year by Liverpool, who are the favorites to repeat their feat this season – they’ve gone undefeated in their domestic league for longer than a calendar year and seem to be unbeatable at the moment. The challengers are hungry though, especially with their domestic trophy cupboards full or already out of reach. By using Accuscore’s simulation engine, we can predict which teams are most likely to win and hoist the trophy on May 30^th in Istanbul.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the pairs will be drawn randomly from the quarter final stages onward, so it is impossible to make a bracket based on anything else but assumptions. Therefore for the Accuscore Team Rankings we have simulated all the teams against all the teams until the end to figure out the most likely winner and the probabilities of different clubs Champions League title.

RANK	TEAM	ACCUSCORE ODDS	WIN %	BOOKMAKER ODDS
1	Liverpool	6.75	14.8	+450 | 5.50 (1.)
	The holders are favored to win it again. They are unbeaten in EPL for more than a year now and are at least as good a team they were last season. It’s up for the others to put up a better fight than last season.
2	PSG	8.25	12.1	+750 | 8.50 (4.)
	Always up there, but never quite there. It’s time for PSG to make a push. They have some of the best players in the world and now the team is better balanced – there are work horses and fighters in addition to immense talent.
3	Bayern München	8.25	12.1	+700 | 8.00 (3.)
	The team is as talented as any challengers and changes in management have done good in shaking somewhat stale things up. They have been so close in the past, now there’s a great opportunity to go all the way.
4	Manchester City	9.00	11.11	+430 | 5.30 (2.)
	Will Pep Guardiola complete his swansong at the helm of City. Possibly the last chance to do so and the team is fantastic. Injuries and form might be an issue, as well as facing Real on the first round. Otherwise, City is all-in.
5	Juventus	10.25	9.75	+1050 | 11.50 (6.)
	Ronaldo being better than ever, the regular UCL challenger has talented yet somewhat aging squad with some raw talent supporting. Not overly impressive in Serie A, they’re still leading. A push for UCL title is at hand.
6	Barcelona	11.00	9.00	+750 | 8.50 (5.)
	Problematic start of the season, sacking the winning manager and injuries have hindered Barca from favorite to challenger. Still a talented group and if Setien gets his message through and they stay healthy, Barca will challenge.
7	Real Madrid	11.00	9.00	+1400 | 15.00 (7.)
	Some issues to start the season, but Zidane is doing what he does best. Not quite as immensely talented team as usual, but still enough to make a push with the old core leading young newcomers. Definite dark horse in the race.
8	RB Leipzig	19.00	5.25	+3300 | 34.00 (8.)
	Built very much from scratch, the team has been phenomenal in Bundesliga, challenging Bayern and Dortmund up top. Young, raw talent with a couple of mentors, similar to Ajax setup last year. With nothing to lose, could go far.
9	Tottenham	20.00	5.00	+3500 | 36.00 (9.)
	Downhill from last season’s final, Pochettino gone and Mourinho in. They’ve looked somewhat better lately, but missing Harry Kane up front is a blow. Not quite as good as last year, but Mourinho can cook up something special.
10	Atletico Madrid	32.00	3.13	+4000 | 41.00 (10.)
	Griezmann’s departure hurt more than was thought – Atletico can’t score anymore. It’s been an issue all season and they are as good as ever defensively. Hard to see them beating any big boys by fighting 0-0 battles.
11	Dortmund	32.00	3.13	+5000 | 51.00 (11.)
	One of the interesting teams to watch with a massive amount of young talent and dynamic style. Unlikely to be able to contend with the bigger clubs, but might put up a challenge early on by individual efforts.
12	Atalanta	63.00	1.59	+6600 | 67.00 (13.)
	The spark-plug of Serie A, all-out-attack-Atalanta will cause a stir in UCL. Not very structured team is as likely to fall apart as it is to score five goals a game, but they have nothing to lose and will go for the jugular. All.The.Time.
13	Valencia	75.00	1.33	+10000 | 101.00 (14.)
	Close to a disastrous season domestically (9th), Valencia are unlikely to revisit UCL next year. The current visit is likely short as well, although the first round draw was rather favorable. Lacking in all aspects, only outsiders.
14	Chelsea	80.00	1.25	+5000 | 51.00 (12.)
	Transfer ban and uncertain UCL spot for next year – no new players. Young team with a lot of potential and Frank Lampard has done decent job. Still, problems in EPL and thin squad for UCL will be too much to contend.
15	Napoli	150.00	0.67	+10000 | 101.00 (15.)
	Another disaster domestically, Napoli has fallen fast despite sacking managers and making changes. Their structure is in shambles and even with a couple of star caliber players, the games seem lost before they start.
16	Lyon	200.00	0.50	+30000 | 301.00 (16.)
	It was supposed to be the season Lyon challenges PSG – they’re now 11th. Group of talented individuals with no common goal or spirit, going all-in for UCL is their only remedy. Look for attack, attack, attack from start to finish.