• Thursday Baseball Betting Analysis: Tigers-Orioles

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles

    Projected Starters: Matt Boyd (5-5, 5.30 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (1-6, 7.65 ERA)

    We’ve got a four-star hot trend alert in this matchup as the Baltimore Orioles get set to host the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles opened as slight home favorites on the money line (-120), with the total set at 10.5. Tillman’s struggles have been well documented this season, but let’s not forget the abysmal performance Boyd had in his previous start against Baltimore – 2.1 innings pitched with 8 hits allowed and 1 home run. Baltimore’s batting close to .600 against Boyd this season – that’s the variable we’re looking at in this matchup.

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    Boyd vs Tillman

    Boyd has struggled this season against right handers. At the same time, Baltimore is 20-16 in games against a left-handed starter. He has allowed an .859 on-base plus slugging (OPS) to right handers this season – in 14 starts. All nine of his allowed HRs have come to right handers.

    Vegas Odds

    Vegas odds opened up the Orioles at -120 on the money line, suggesting Baltimore has about a 54.5 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sims have the Orioles winning a little over 55 percent of simulations, basically agreeing with the Vegas line.

    A four-star hot trend is always attractive, especially given the fact that Baltimore is 7-2 in their last nine at Camden.

    Recent Trends vs AccuScore Data

    The OVER is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts, and 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 home games against a team with a losing record.

    Given the fact we have a pair of starters in this matchup projected to give up runs, the OVER seems like a lock - right? The sim data says otherwise, with close to 60 percent of sims staying below the total. The average combined total in sims is about 9.9.

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