Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFC Championship: Eagles vs Vikings – Analyst Preview & Pick
We've got a pair of 11-6 against the spread (ATS) teams going at it this Sunday as the Philadelphia Eagles host Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that decides who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.
Vegas Odds
The Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites before settling in at -3 in most books. The total saw a similar lack of movement since opening at 38.5.
Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
Total: 38.5/39
At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Vikings.
54 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.
All of AccuScore's NFL Championship Weekend Projections, Trends and Forecasts:NFL Playoffs Picks
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What to Watch For
Passing Yards: The Vikings have the 11th most passing yards per game (238.88). The Eagles are No. 13 in the league (233.82). What's interesting though is that Philly has the 23rd-most home passing yards per game.
QB Nick Foles is projected to finish this matchup with 215 passing yards and 1 TD.
Weapons: The Vikings are No. 3 in passing yards allowed, while the Eagles are No. 17. The Eagles are No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed, while the Vikings are No. 2 in the same category. Don't expect either side to have much production on the ground. All that makes sense when you see the Eagles and Vikings are one-and-two in total defensive time on field.
The Eagles' defense is projected to finish with 1-plus takeaway, with there being just a slightly higher probability at a pick as opposed to a recovered fumble. The Vikings' defense is projected to force fewer than one turnover; if it does happen, there's a slightly higher probability for an INT.
Analyst's Pick
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Analyst Pick:
The OVER.
The total has gone OVER in four of Minnesota's last six games on the road. The score goes over 38.5 in about 53 percent of simulated matchups.
