MLS Friday: Orlando City vs Atlanta United

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

MLS Analyst Preview: Orlando City vs Atlanta United

MLS Friday features Atlanta United -- in its inaugural season -- heading to Florida for a matchup with Orlando City. Orlando opened as slight favorites to win on the money line (-113), with just a single point separating the two sides in the standings.

Atlanta heads into Friday’s nationally televised matchup having won three in a row by a combined score of 7-4. Orlando, however, hasn’t been all that great over the last month. They fell short 3-1 to Toronto at home the last time out.

Get this - Orlando has won just two of their last 14 matches overall, falling down to the No. 6 spot in the East after a strong start to the regular season. They're still 6-2-3 at home and can make some ground over the next few weeks with multiple matchups vs Atlanta -- currently in the No. 4 spot.

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Analyst's Pick

We've got a two-star AccuScore hot trend on the total (3.0), with about 54 percent of simulated matchups going OVER 3.

Both teams have a very open, free style of play and should treat the fans with plenty of shots on target. I'll take the OVER.

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MLS Friday: Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

MLS Analyst Preview: Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake

Friday night features some MLS action on ESPN as an out-of-form Orlando City SC heads west against a struggling Real Salt Lake (RSL) squad.

Losers of four of their last five matches, RSL will look to get back on track in the West standings - currently in the No. 10 slot with 17 points. The recent struggles were all on the road, though, and the home crowd should help turn things around.

Right?

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

Vegas odds have RSL as slight home favorites to get the win, listed at -125 on the money line at the time of publication. That indicates about a 54.4 percent chance of winning.

AccuScore data has that probability much lower, just under 43 percent. AccuScore sim data would have listed RSL at about +130 on the money line.

Taking a look at the standings, there's some value in the UNDER and the draw in this matchup. With Orlando City having scored just two goals in their last five road matches, recent play indicates a pick on the UNDER.

AccuScore sim data, however, doesn't provide much value on either side of the total.

Make sure to check out the full simulation to get insight on side value picks and potential in a draw in this matchup.

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Analyst's Last Word

Despite the difference in the money line winning probabilities between odds and sim data, a pick on the home side is attractive. RSL isn't having a great season, but they have been solid at home - winning three in a row there. They're a shade over EVEN odds and it's fairly attractive.

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