2017 Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Miami - Analyst Pick & Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Wisconsin vs Miami: Orange Bowl Analyst Pick

Both Wisconsin and Miami may have just been a win or two away from playing the College Football Playoffs, but they'll have to take what's theirs at the Orange Bowl in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Badgers had their eyes set on the playoffs a few weeks back, but don't expect them to be treat this as a give-away.

Wisconsin is 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past three bowl games while averaging 425.7 yards and 27 points per game.

Let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

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Vegas Odds
There has practically been no movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The Badgers just moved up a half-point since opening as 6-point favorites.

Betting Line: Wisconsin -6.5
Total: 45

At the time of publication, 52 percent of the public were taking the points and picking Miami.

Action on the total has been on about even on the OVER/UNDER.

What to Watch For
Badgers' Defense: This season, Wisconsin gave up just 4.24 yards per play and 253.2 yards per game. Their overall defense (ypc) was No. 1 in the country, and grew to be the team's best feature as things into October and November this season.

In the Big Ten Championship, the Ohio State Buckeyes finished with 27 points, the highest total Wisconsin had given up so far. On the year, the Badgers' defense allowed opponents to score just 13.2 points per game, No. 3 in the country.

The Miami offense is led by QB Malik Rosier, RB Travis Homer, and WR Braxton Berrios. Rosier is projected to finish with 163 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; he actually averages more INTs per sim than he does TDs. Homer is projected to finish with 59 yards on 12-to-13 carries, while Berrios is projected to reel in 42 yards on three-to-four receptions. Homer has a slightly her probability of finding the end zone than does Berrios.

Runnin' Wild: Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has averaged 218.3 rushing yards in games after he was held to fewer than 100.

Taylor s projected to finish with 135 yards on 24 carries; he averages 0.9 TDs per sim, indicating there's a very high probability he finds the end zone against Miami.