Alabama vs Florida State: Analyst Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Alabama vs Florida State: Analyst Preview

Date: Saturday, Sept. 2 @ 8 P.M. (Eastern)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium -- Atlanta

This weekend's Alabama-Florida State matchup in Atlanta has the whole country talking about college football, anticipating quite the battle in Atlanta Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites at the time of publication, with the total set at 50 or 50.5, depending on when and where you get the line.

All of AccuScore’s Week 1: College Football picks

What to Watch For

This matchup comes down to whether or not Florida State QB Deondre Francois can find the weapons he has on the field. No more Dalvin Cook, and all the starting receivers from last year are gone. It'll be up to someone like WR Nyqwan Murray to make some big-time plays, in just the first week of the college football season.

The Tide defense can be a bit suspect, at least relatively when comparing the unit to the talent they had in the past two years. If Florida State ends up winning this game, it'll be directly tied to a questionable Alabama secondary that -- on paper -- should struggle against 4-and-5-WR sets.

Vegas vs AccuScore

Whereas Vegas odds have Alabama favored by a TD, AccuScore's sims have the spread at at a 10-point margin. Whenever the sim spread is greater than that set in Vegas, the data is indicating a pick on the favorite to cover.

Similar situation with the total in this matchup as AccuScore has the total about 5 points greater than what's set in Vegas -- indicating a pick on the OVER.

In terms of value, the pick on the OVER seems to offer more than 'Bama covering. Vegas odds suggest there's about a 52-to-53 percent chance of Alabama covering the 7-point spread. They cover that spread in about 54 percent of sims.

The OVER is listed at -115 at the time of publication, suggesting about a 53.5 percent chance of happening. The total score in sims, though, goes OVER the total set in Vegas in over 59 percent of sims, providing more value than the odds in Vegas indicate.

Betting Trends
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of FSU's last 24 games as an underdog.
• Alabama is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine Week 1 games.

Analyst's Pick

Sims project a high-scoring affairs this time around, and Alabama's defense projects to have a better performance than does the FSU offense. QB Deondre Francois struggled last year and gets to kick the 2017 season off with quite the opponent.

'Bama covering and the OVER.

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College Football Analyst Pick: Oklahoma State at Texas

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

10. OK State at Texas: Analyst Pick & Preview

If last year's matchup between these two sides was any indication, we should expect another high-scoring performance when Oklahoma State and Texas match up this Saturday in Austin, TX. With so many teams in the Big 12 currently holding a 2-1 conference record currently, this matchup could have a big impact in how the conference ultimately plays out.

The Sooners are 5-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last seven matchups with the Longhorns.

Date: Saturday, October 21st
Time: 9:00 AM PST

Vegas Odds
Spread: Oklahoma State -7
Total: 64.5

There's been practically no movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. Oklahoma State's -7 spread has held, and the total dropped a half-point in some books from 65 to 64.5.

Betting Trends
-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 6 games.
-OK State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
-OK State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five games after racking up more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
-OK State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 road games.
-Texas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games on field turf.

AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

What to Watch For
Texas freshman QB Sam Ehlinger has been quite the dual threat this season -- showing a ton of potential in the Longhorns' big comeback against Texas. They weren't able to get the win, but Ehlinger throwing for 278 yards (1 TD) and running for 106 more yards showed just what kind of a weapon he can be.

Ehlinger is projected to finish Saturday's game with 227 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.

Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph is leading the way for an offense averaging close to 49 points per game. He's connecting on two-thirds of his passes, and has thrown just four INTs compared to 19 TDs.

Rudolph is projected to finish Saturday's matchup with 322 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.

Rudolph has been ridiculously efficient throwing to WR James Washington, who's averaging just a shade under 26 yards per catch.

Washington is projected to finish with an average of 17 yards per catch on Saturday.

Analyst's Pick

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College Football Week 3 Recap

College football is finally starting to heat up and we are here for it. The SEC will finally kick off in week 4 so now is the time to start doing your research and getting ready to find some winners. Remember you can always find winners withBetQL’s college football picks, but before we get started with week 4 we wanted to look back at some of our favorite games from week 3. Take a look at our recaps below and start getting ready for the biggest week of the year. 

Louisiana 34, Georgia State, 31 Overtime

It’s safe to say that the Ragin’ Cajuns spent most of the week basking in the glory of last week’s upset win over Iowa State because they came out a little flat. Georgia State took full advantage by taking an early lead, ultimately leading 21-7 midway through the third quarter. However, Louisiana eventually started to hit on some big plays, scoring 21 unanswered points to take a 28-21 lead before the Panthers struck back to force overtime. After Georgia State got a field goal, Elijah Mitchell ran in the game-scoring touchdown from 12 yards out. That run was Mitchell’s second of the day and gave him 164 yards on 16 carries. Levi Lewis also threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, overcoming a couple of interceptions to keep the Ragin’ Cajuns undefeated ahead of next week’s home opener with Georgia Southern while a showdown with Appalachian State lurks in two weeks.

Check out BetQL to see which way the public is betting for every game with theircollege football consensus pick dashboard. No matter the bet type of the game BetQL has all the football data you need. 

Oklahoma State 16, Tulsa 7

This was not the game the Cowboys envisioned for their season opener given OSU’s high expectations this year. The Oklahoma State offense got nothing going for much of the first half and then saw quarterback Spencer Sanders leave with an injury. When backup Ethan Bullock was ineffective, the Cowboys turned to true freshman Shane Illingworth. He turned out to be just what Oklahoma State needed, leading the Cowboys on a drive that ended with a Chuba Hubbard touchdown. Of course, the Oklahoma State defense was the real hero of the day, shutting down the Tulsa offense for most of the day. With a couple of late field goals, the Cowboys managed to survive an ugly game before next week’s Big 12 opener against West Virginia.

Notre Dame 52, South Florida 0

This game more or less went according to plan for Notre Dame. One week after struggling to put away The Citadel, South Florida continued to look like a team that struggled against The Citadel. The Fighting Irish were dominant from the start, quickly taking a 14-0 lead and ultimately leading 35-0 at halftime. Ian Book threw the ball just 19 times but had no passing touchdowns. However, Book found the end zone in three of his four carries. Outside of a blocked punt that Notre Dame turned into a touchdown, all six Fighting Irish touchdowns came on the ground. It was a complete effort for Notre Dame, who hits the road for the first time next week to play Wake Forest.

Make sure you are always looking at the mostupdated college football odds with BetQL. If there is any line movement at the sportsbook you can be sure that BetQL has it on their site.