Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Alabama vs Florida State: Analyst Preview
Date: Saturday, Sept. 2 @ 8 P.M. (Eastern)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium -- Atlanta
This weekend's Alabama-Florida State matchup in Atlanta has the whole country talking about college football, anticipating quite the battle in Atlanta Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites at the time of publication, with the total set at 50 or 50.5, depending on when and where you get the line.
All of AccuScore’s Week 1: College Football picks
What to Watch For
This matchup comes down to whether or not Florida State QB Deondre Francois can find the weapons he has on the field. No more Dalvin Cook, and all the starting receivers from last year are gone. It'll be up to someone like WR Nyqwan Murray to make some big-time plays, in just the first week of the college football season.
The Tide defense can be a bit suspect, at least relatively when comparing the unit to the talent they had in the past two years. If Florida State ends up winning this game, it'll be directly tied to a questionable Alabama secondary that -- on paper -- should struggle against 4-and-5-WR sets.
Vegas vs AccuScore
Whereas Vegas odds have Alabama favored by a TD, AccuScore's sims have the spread at at a 10-point margin. Whenever the sim spread is greater than that set in Vegas, the data is indicating a pick on the favorite to cover.
Similar situation with the total in this matchup as AccuScore has the total about 5 points greater than what's set in Vegas -- indicating a pick on the OVER.
In terms of value, the pick on the OVER seems to offer more than 'Bama covering. Vegas odds suggest there's about a 52-to-53 percent chance of Alabama covering the 7-point spread. They cover that spread in about 54 percent of sims.
The OVER is listed at -115 at the time of publication, suggesting about a 53.5 percent chance of happening. The total score in sims, though, goes OVER the total set in Vegas in over 59 percent of sims, providing more value than the odds in Vegas indicate.
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of FSU's last 24 games as an underdog.
• Alabama is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine Week 1 games.
Sims project a high-scoring affairs this time around, and Alabama's defense projects to have a better performance than does the FSU offense. QB Deondre Francois struggled last year and gets to kick the 2017 season off with quite the opponent.
'Bama covering and the OVER.
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