Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter
March Madness comes to its final leg as the Final Four takes center stage this weekend in Phoenix, with North Carolina set to face Oregon, and Gonzaga matching up with South Carolina.
Get this – only 657 on approximately 19 million bracket entries on ESPN predicted this Final Four grouping. Of course South Carolina is the biggest surprise in terms of seeding, but it’s tough to look past the public notion that Gonzaga was expected to be out by now. Either way, this is what we have and there are plenty of wagering opportunities.
Let’s take a closer look:
No. 3 Oregon vs No. 1 UNC
North Carolina, in the Final Four again. Can’t say we’re surprised they’re still playing in April for the 11th time since 1991. Oregon, on the other hand, has very little experience on such a large stage, last reaching and winning in 1939.
Despite the lack of experience, the Ducks roster has pieces that can give the opponent some issues. Junior Jordan Bell has been playing above his growth line and potential in this tournament, averaging close to 13 points and 13 rebounds. You might also remember his 8 blocks against Kansas.
Bell will go up against Kennedy Meeks and just might have the slight edge. Meeks had 17 rebounds against Kentucky. Given how competitive this game projects to be, the winner of this matchup inside just might dictate the outcome.
Betting Trends
· Oregon is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven NCAA tourney games as an underdog.
· Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.
No. 7 South Carolina vs No. 1 Gonzaga
On the other side of the bracket we have a pair of teams -- despite the difference in seeding -- very few expected to make it this far.
This game really comes down to one matchup: Przemek Karnowski and Gonzaga's offense in the paint against South Carolina's defense.
South Carolina is one of the best in the nation pressuring opponent's guards. Gonzaga, however, does everything inside-out and this difference of styles should give us a fun matchup.
Betting Trends
Gonzaga is 8-1 straight up (SU) in its last nine games against SEC opponents.
· The total has gone UNDER in 21 of the last 30 South Carolina games in which they’re listed as an underdog.
Analyst’s Top 2 FINAL FOUR Picks
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Analyst’s Picks
1. Bell wins the matchup against Meeks and Oregon’s hot shooting continues to possibly upset the No. 1 seed. I’ll take Oregon and the points (+5).
2. The near-week layoff makes wagering on this matchup interesting. South Carolina’s ability to hound ball-handlers should make it a struggle for Gonzaga to get the ball in the paint. Their scoring other than that has been largely inconsistent. I’ll take defense over offense at this stage of the tournament. Sindarius Thornwell will be the best player on the floor, keeping South Carolina at least within striking distance. I’ll take the points (+7.0).
NOTE: AccuScore is picking Gonzaga to cover -7.0, but the computer has been 0-4 in picking against the spread in games involving South Carolina during the tournament. This is one case where AccuScore's own trends suggest betting the opposite.
AccuScore has Moneyline, Against the Spread & Totals picks for both Final Four games, including player projections:
AccuScore’s NCAA Final Four Picks
