• MLB 2023 Playoffs: Rangers still favored by simulations

    The MLB playoffs for the 2023 season have already provided quite a bit of surprising results, with plenty of underdogs sending the favorites packing early on. The regular season league leaders Baltimore Orioles of American League and Atlanta Braves of the National League, both with over 100 regular season wins, were ousted by the fierce dogs, the fifth seeded Texas Rangers and fourth seeded Philadelphia Phillies respectively. In addition, behemoths Los Angeles Dodgers, who claimed the second seed in the National League regular season fell to the sixth seed Arizona Diamondbacks – and it was not even close, as the D’backs swept the divisional round series 3-0 as did the Rangers against Baltimore Orioles.

    The conference series of MLB playoffs sees the American League regular season second seeded Houston Astros hosting the best-of-seven battle against Texas Rangers and in the National League it is those hungry dogs facing each other in the dog-eat-dog contest between Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. As mentioned before, Diamondbacks took everyone by surprise by sending Dodgers to an early holiday from the MLB playoffs by a clean sweep and the Phillies took down 2021 World Series winners Atlanta Braves 3-1. Reigning World Series champions Astros conquered Minnesota Twins in the divisional round with impressive 3-1 series victory, while Texas swept the shooting star of the season, Baltimore Orioles. Who would have thought, you might ask.

    Well, Accuscore’s MLB playoffs predictions did. Texas Rangers were heavily favored by the simulations as an odds-underdog against the Orioles, with odds of -105 to win the series and odds of +600 to complete the sweep in three games. Accuscore’s simulations had Rangers 65.9% favorites to win the series with 20.5% probability to win it in three straight set. Hefty profits from this head-to-head covered some losses in the NL, with both Atlanta and the Dodgers picked to win their respective series in the MLB playoffs. Furthermore, the MLB playoffs predictions indicated Texas Rangers as a value pick for World Series as well, with odds of +700 at the time, currently those odds are slashed to +185 at Draftkings Sportsbook

    The MLB playoffs Conference series are on their way and the Rangers have already proven not to be a fluke: they went to Houston and shutout the heavy hitting home team 2-0. Starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery led the way with six strikeouts and five allowed hits during his six innings and left a nice depleted field for the relievers Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc. Jonah Heim’s single towards Mauricio Dubon was enough to allow Evan Carter to reach the home base on the top of 2nd inning and the insurance score came by the bat of Leody Taveras, who homered to an empty field to make it 2-0 on the top of the 5th inning.

    Houston’s at bats were continuously left guessing by Montgomery and despite recording five hits, six runners were left on base. The pitching for the home team was exquisite despite the loss and veteran Justin Verlander stroke out five batters with an ERA of 1.42 – but it was not enough to secure the victory over the impeccable Rangers.

    The second game of the series is played on October 16th with Nathan Eovaldi stepping up on the mound for the Rangers and Framber Valdez getting the nod for the Astros. The odds are currently standing at +106 for the Rangers and -124 for the Astros at the Fanduel Sportsbook.

    Accuscore MLB playoffs predictions indicate a coin flip of a match, with Astros being the moneyline favorites with 51.3% while the side value pick is marginally on the Rangers side with 48.7% and odds of +106 (48.5%).

    To gain access to all the MLB playoffs predictions and much, much more, sign up for a FREE 7-day trial with Accuscore or if you are based in the USA, join the BetQL community for more insights, offers and sports predictions.

  • Thursday Baseball Betting Analysis: Tigers-Orioles

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles

    Projected Starters: Matt Boyd (5-5, 5.30 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (1-6, 7.65 ERA)

    We’ve got a four-star hot trend alert in this matchup as the Baltimore Orioles get set to host the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles opened as slight home favorites on the money line (-120), with the total set at 10.5. Tillman’s struggles have been well documented this season, but let’s not forget the abysmal performance Boyd had in his previous start against Baltimore – 2.1 innings pitched with 8 hits allowed and 1 home run. Baltimore’s batting close to .600 against Boyd this season – that’s the variable we’re looking at in this matchup.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Boyd vs Tillman

    Boyd has struggled this season against right handers. At the same time, Baltimore is 20-16 in games against a left-handed starter. He has allowed an .859 on-base plus slugging (OPS) to right handers this season – in 14 starts. All nine of his allowed HRs have come to right handers.

    Vegas Odds

    Vegas odds opened up the Orioles at -120 on the money line, suggesting Baltimore has about a 54.5 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sims have the Orioles winning a little over 55 percent of simulations, basically agreeing with the Vegas line.

    A four-star hot trend is always attractive, especially given the fact that Baltimore is 7-2 in their last nine at Camden.

    Recent Trends vs AccuScore Data

    The OVER is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts, and 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 home games against a team with a losing record.

    Given the fact we have a pair of starters in this matchup projected to give up runs, the OVER seems like a lock - right? The sim data says otherwise, with close to 60 percent of sims staying below the total. The average combined total in sims is about 9.9.

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