March Madness: Free Friday Pick - Arkansas vs Butler

Written by AccuScore Staff
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Arizona is out, the Pac-12 is in ruins and day two of the madness promises more upsets and shockers. There are a few games in particular that AccuScore thinks are worth keeping an eye on because the computer simply doesn’t agree with Vegas.

Friday’s Free Pick: Arkansas over Butler – Moneyline

Arkansas is the no. 7 seed, while the Butler Bulldogs are 1.5 point favorites as the no. 12 seed according to Las Vegas. Well, this is one case where AccuScore thinks Vegas is wrong. Vegas says that Arkansas only has a 46.5% chance of winning, while the computer thinks that number should be closer to 55.3%, so there is 8.8% side value on picking the Razorbacks to justify their seeding. Likewise, the computer calculates Arkansas wins outright or loses by 1 in 58.9% of simulations.

AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and totals for every single tournament game: College Basketball Picks

The play here, though, is to take Arkansas on the moneyline at +114.

In addition, this game also has a hot trends 4-star pick on the Totals. With the line at 151.5, the computer thinks this game will go over, with 54% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations going OVER

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1: Nevada over Texas on the Moneyline: Again, Vegas believes in the lower seed, while AccuScore thinks the selection committee got the seeding correct. AccuScore calculates that Nevada is 55.3% to win straight up, while the odds suggest Nevada is 48.5% to win. There’s value on the moneyline here.

Midwest Region: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2017

Written by Rohit Ghosh

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2017 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region -- filled with uptempo offenses and prolific backcourts -- features guards like Frank Mason III, Jawun Evans, Monte Morris, Derrick Walton, and Tyler Dorsey, to name a few.

While many pundits initially picked Kansas to have a deep run, certain matchups in this region suggest the road won't be so easy.

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The No. 1 Seed

Kansas had a disappointing loss to TCU in the Big 12 tourney, but they're just what their record (28-4) says they are -- really good. They finished the regular season with an 8-2 record against the RPI top 50 and enters the Big Dance for the second straight year as the top seed.

How far should you have them in your bracket?

Michigan State may not have the consistency fans are looking for, but have the coaching and talent to make another deep run. AccuScore sim data has Kansas' journey ending in the round of 32 against the Spartans. Bold.

AccuScore has Moneyline, Against the Spread & Totals picks for every NCAA tournament game, including the play-in games: AccuScore’s College Basketball Expert Picks

Double-digit Seed to Watch

Keep an eye on No. 11 Rhode Island, a top-25 team at one point this season. AccuScore sim data absolutely loves Creighton to go far, but don't expect that first-round matchup against the Atlantic 10 champs to be a cakewalk. Rhode Island does have wins over Cincinnati and VCU.

Chalk

The Midwest region -- in terms of AccuScore sim data -- looks to be the most susceptible to lower seeds making it to the Sweet 16 and on.

With the Spartans knocking off the Jayhawks in the second round, the field opens up for a team like No. 4 Purdue to knock on the door of the Final Four.

No. 2 Louisville would also benefit from the early Kansas loss, but the sims suggest Creighton's recent play will be too much for even the defensive-minded Cardinals.

AccuScore sim data has Purdue and Creighton matching up for a spot in the Final Four. Purdue last reached the Final Four in 1980.

Final Word

Numbers don't like and AccuScore's history in tournament-style events is proven. With Purdue getting that kind of value, it's tough to shy away from a wager.

At the time of publication, Kansas is the favorite in this region, getting +200 odds. Louisville (+350), Oregon (+450) and Purdue (+600).

AccuScore’s Bracketology Previews
South Region
West Region