• NFL Preview - Packers vs Saints: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: Analyst Pick

    Coming off an impressive 52-38 victory over the Detroit Lions, the New Orleans Saints head to Lambeau Field for a matchup with the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. Following Rodgers' broken right clavicle injury last week, the Packers will now look to backup QB Brett Hundley.

    Betting Line: New Orleans Saints -4 Moneyline Odds: Saints -210, Packers +175 Total: 47

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    Vegas Odds

    The line opened with the Packers as 3.5-point home underdogs, going up half-point to a full point depend on where you're look. The Westgate Superbook has the line at -4 for the Saints, but MGM has it at -4.5.

    The total opened at 47.5 and dropped to 47 in most books.

    Betting Trends

    • The Saints are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games.
    • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay.
    • The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.

    Betting on the Total
    The public is all over the OVER in this matchup. The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight matchups between the two sides. And with Drew Brees going against a Packers defense that isn't all that great -- all signs point to a fairly high-scoring contest.

    Make sure to check out the sim data for this matchup, though, since AccuScore is leaning to the other side of the total. Why?

    The Saints set a franchise record last week by scoring three defensive touchdowns in one game. They're coming into Sunday's matchup with plenty of momentum on that side of the ball, and now get to go up against a backup QB in Hundley who's still adjusting to the pro level.

    What to Watch For
    After Aaron Rodgers left last week's game against the Vikings on a car, Hundley took over and finished with 157 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs while completing just 18 of his 33 pass attempts. More importantly, he was sacked four times, struggling to get in any sort of rhythm.

    Hundley is projected to finish with 172 passing yards. He averages close to three times as many INTs as TDs in sims, indicating a strong performance by the Saints defense.

    Analyst's Pick
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