AFC North: 2017 NFL Previews

Written by AccuScore Staff
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AccuScore continues to preview every team and division in the NFL ahead of the 2017 NFL season kickoff:

AFC North: 2017 NFL Division Previews

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Pittsburgh playoffs streak continues

The Pittsburgh Steelers have reached the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and they have improved year after year. Three years ago, they lost in wild card game, two years ago they lost in divisional game and year ago they lost in conference final to the eventual Super Bowl winners. So is this the year for Pittsburgh?

Accuscore season simulations predict that Pittsburgh finish top of the AFC North again. The Steelers project to win 11 games and the probability to win division is 55%. Before the start of the season, the Steelers look like one of the safest bets to reach the postseason. Added to that, Pittsburgh starts the season in Cleveland, which should be a nice easy win to get the season going.

Roster Moves:

As Pittsburgh appears to be heading in the right direction the last few seasons, the front office hasn’t made too many earth shattering changes to the roster. Departures of Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones from the linebackers corps are notable, but most probably will not have a massive impact on the performance of the defense. Backup running back DeAngelo Williams was also replaced by Knile Davis. Last season’s injury and declining performance led to the release of WR Markus Wheaton, but Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates should provide enough targets for Ben Roethlisberger.

Fantasy Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers’ defense is one of the best in the league. Accuscore’s fantasy projections list them as a Top 4 team fantasy defense. Other good picks for your fantasy team from the Steelers are Le'Veon Bell, who is projected to finish Top 3 among running backs, Antonio Brown, a top 10 wide receiver, as well as Martavis Bryant, who is projected to be 26th among all WRs. Even though QB Ben Roethlisberger is not projected to gather top10 fantasy numbers at his position, he has still everything that it takes to lead Steelers to playoffs.

Other 2017 NFL Previews:
NFC North Division Preview
NFC East Division Preview
NFC South Division Preview
NFC West Division Preview

AFC West Division Preview
AFC East Division Preview

Ravens trying to end playoffs drought

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 season, the Baltimore Ravens have reached the playoffs only once and won only one game during that run in 2014.

The Ravens are predicted to have a 9-7 record and put them on the bubble with a handful of other wildcard teams. Baltimore has a 30% chance of winning the AFC North, but include the likelihood of making the postseason is up to 50% when including the Wild Card.

Roster Moves:

There have been quite a lot of departures from the Ravens’ squad this summer. Both lines took a hit when Lawrence Guy (DE) and Ricky Wagner (OT) left the team. Baltimore is rebuilding via the draft and spent 3 out of 4 top draft picks on the defensive line. Also, the retirement of WR Steve Smith will have impact on the team. Despite missing the playoffs, QB Joe Flacco had a career season in 2016 when he broke 4000 passing yards for the first time. Due to injury, though, Flacco’s status for the opening game is up in the air and it could be that he is not 100% during first few weeks of the season.

Fantasy Analysis: Baltimore Ravens

For fantasy players, the Ravens have no one to offer in the first round. Depending on the severity of the injury, Flacco’s projected to be a top15 fantasy QB. Also, WR Jeremy Maclin can be a good late rounds addition to your team, but if Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman take most of the snaps, he won’t be a difference maker. Once a league leading defense, the Ravens still rank Top 8 for fantasy.

Cincinnati bounces back to a playoff contender

Last season ended the Bengals’ five-year streak of a postseason play. Sadly, the Bengals did not collect a single postseason win during that five-year span. Still, only six wins during the 2016 regular season was a clear step backwards from past performances of this team.

Accuscore predicts that the Bengals will bounce back to fight for the playoffs spot. Even though they do not project to be a threat to the Pittsburgh Steelers and should have a tough time topping the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati should start moving back in the right direction. Based on season simulations, the Bengals project to get 9 wins and around 20% probability to win AFC North. The chances of qualifying for the postseason are around 40%.

Roster Moves:

During the offseason, the biggest roster changes took place on the offensive line. Seasoned veterans like Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth left the team. Even if the injury bug doesn’t hit Cincinnati as it did year ago, the gaping hole in the offensive line could be difficult to fill. On the other side, the Bengals upgraded their defense with linebacker Kevin Minter from Arizona.

Fantasy Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is predicted to be an above average defense in AccuScore’s season long fantasy projections, but the Bengals shouldn’t be the first defense picked in the draft or close to it. A healthy AJ Green would be another notable fantasy player, but he is not predicted to be among Top 5 WRs for fantasy points in 2017. QB Andy Dalton has received a boatload of critique about his fluctuating performance, but he is still predicted to be above average starter in NFL and a serviceable second quarterback on a fantasy team.

Cleveland struggle continues

The Cleveland Browns won only one game in 2016 season. That wasn’t any big surprise as the last time they were not last in their division or won less than 5 games was over 10 years ago. Constant changes in head coaching and key player positions have not been the right recipe for success for Cleveland. So, will any of this change in the upcoming season?

Accuscore’s simulations show minor improvement for the Browns, but two wins out of 16 won’t count for much in Ohio. They don’t have any reasonable chances to win division or reach playoffs as both probabilities are shown in fraction of percentage. Cleveland’s best chances to win games come against New York Jets in week 5 and a trip to Chicago in week 16.

Roster Moves:

The change has been constant on the Browns’ roster in recent years. Now, they are relying on rookie QB DeShone Kizer. This decision sliced around two wins from their win totals, as Kizer is going to be learning on the job. The Browns’ offensive line should be better than a year ago, as they signed JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler to improve it. Their top WR Terrelle Pryor left the building and it will be interesting to see how Kenny Britt fills his shoes. Both WRs broke 1000 yards mark in last season without a great QB tossing them the ball, so the change doesn’t appear to be a huge step back ro a stp backwards.

Fantasy Analysis: Cleveland Browns

Based on his track record, Kenny Britt would be good pick for your fantasy team’s receiving corp. He will be used in many situations and be a clear no. 1 receiver on the team. RB Isaiah Crowell could also be good later rounds pickup for your draft, too. He is predicted to be a Top 15 running back in the league and is expected to break 1000 yards rushing. The Defense is ranked dead last in the league’s fantasy projections, and the new rookie QB is in similar company.

Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 5.5 Wins?

- by Brandon Barbour

The Cincinnati Bengals have moved on from Andy Dalton with the Joe Burrow era officially beginning. The Bengals didn’t screw this draft up and took the local kid with the top overall selection. They even provided him with a new toy at wide receiver in Tee Higgins in the beginning of the second-round. John Ross finished as the best wide out on the club last season, but his 57th-ranked DYAR shows a lack of talent.

Returning at left tackle is last season’s top selection for Cincinnati. Jonah Williams missed all of 2019 after being the first offensive lineman taken in the draft. This should help an offensive line that tied for the fifth-most allowed sacks (50) in the NFL last season, including a stuffed rate that was tied for fourth-worst at 22 percent. The Bengals were one of the worst teams across the board last year but especially against the spread. The Bengals were 6-10 against the spread and covered 37%. Although they are making updates to the roster this team should never be one of your top NFL picks.

The AFC North is simply a brutal division. The Baltimore Ravens are one of the AFC’s top-two teams and the Cleveland Browns are intriguing on paper. On top of that, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a terrific defense and welcome back Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals are nowhere near a playoff contender, but how does this bode for their projected win total?

Cincinnati may struggle to win their first game this season. The schedule starts out strong with the Los Angeles Chargers, at the Cleveland Browns, at the Philadelphia Eagles, hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, at the Baltimore Ravens, at the Indianapolis Colts, hosting the Cleveland Browns, hosting the Tennessee Titans, at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wow, that’s rough. Maybe, just maybe the team could pounce on the Jaguars to take their first win in week 4. If they miss out on that opportunity, then it’s not that crazy to speculate an 0-9 start. Let’s go with 1-8 to be reasonable.

After the brutal start, Cincinnati will visit the Washington Redskins, host the New York Giants, visit the Miami Dolphins, host the Dallas Cowboys, host the Pittsburgh Steelers, visit the Houston Texans, and finish by hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Ok, this gets a bit more interesting. The Redskins and Giants contests should be very interesting. By this time, it’s fair to think that the offense and Burrow could be clicking a bit more. Let’s say they win both. Best case scenario, they’re 3-8 at this point.

The Dolphins are much improved and could be starting Tua Tagovailoa by this point, making a terrific rookie quarterback battle. Even if the Bengals pull this one out, the remaining schedule is brutal and they’d be stuck at four wins. Let’s say the Ravens are resting many starters for week 17 and the Bengals steal one. That puts them at 5-11, still under their NFL over under line of 5.5 wins. While the last two wins mentioned aren’t as practical, they’re possible. Even with the doubt, the Bengals fall short of their projected win total by sportsbooks.

This is quite a time to be a rookie quarterback in a league that’s built off repetitions, chemistry and timing with teammates, and overall knowledge. With the Covid-19 epidemic hammering sports leagues, practicing with large groups has been impossible. The 2020 season was already going to be a challenge for rookie quarterback Burrow, but this is a whole new challenge. The other teams in the AFC North won’t be dealing with the same offseason burden, as they have been with their organizations long enough to be comfortable without the reps. The future is definitely bright for the Bengals, but betting under 5.5 wins is a no-brainer, and it will be interesting to see what the NFL point spreads look like when real teams go up against this Bengals squad.

Steelers at Bengals: Free NFL Monday Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Steelers at Bengals - Preview, Odds & Free Analyst Pick

Week 13 in the NFL finishes up Monday night in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers as fairly heavy home 'dogs. Pittsburgh won the first meeting of the season 29-14.

Vegas Odds

The Steelers opened up nearly as a TD-favorite before settling at -4.5 or -5 at the time of publication.

The total has been steady since opening at 43.

Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
Total: 43

At the time of publication, close to 62 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Pittsburgh.

56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last 11 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Steelers' last seven games vs the Bengals.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Steelers' last six games on the road vs the Bengals.

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What to Watch For

Bengals QB Andy Dalton heads into Week 13 with a 62 percent completion percentage and an 18-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio. Given the change in offensive coordinator and injuries the team has dealt with, Dalton's play has been decent. He's averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, which can be an issue given the fact that the Bengals have run 41 fewer plays than any other team in the NFL.

Dalton is projected to finish with 250 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages close to twice as many INTs per sim (1.1) as he does INTs (0.6).

The Bengals defense has been their calling card this year, ranking fifth in the league in completion percentage against.

The Bengals defense averages 1-plus takeaways n the sims, with there being a slightly higher probability of a pick than a recovered fumble. QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 0.8 interceptions per sim.

Steelers WR Antonio Brown is without a doubt one of, if not the best in the game at what he does -- and he's coming off two strong performances. After lighting up Tennessee for 114 yards on 10 receptions and 3 TDs, he finished with 169 on 10 catches for TDs.

Brown is projected to finish with 85 yards on 7 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim.

Free Analyst's Pick
The UNDER.

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