Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick
We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.
AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks
Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data
One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.
The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.
The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.
AccuScore Betting Trends
• All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
• All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
• All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
• All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit
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Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
• The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
• The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.
What to Watch For
Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.
He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.
Free Analyst's Pick
The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.
We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.
