Written by Rohit Ghosh
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UCF vs Alabama: Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl - Analyst Preview, Odds Analysis & Picks
The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl features UCF and Auburn in a matchup that's projected to be one of the more high-scoring contests on new year's day. One side -- UCF -- is looking to put a stamp on a strong, out-of-nowhere regular season campaign; the other -- Auburn -- will have to settle playing in Atlanta while Alabama, the team they beat the week prior, gets set for the playoffs.
Let's take a closer look at this matchup.
Vegas Odds
Auburn opened as 9.5-point favorites before settling in a half-point higher. The total has seen some more movement, though, since it opened at 65 initially.
Betting Line: Auburn -10
Total: 67.5
At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public were laying the points and picking Auburn.
62 percent of the public action has been on the OVER.
All of AccuScore's College Football Bowl picks
Our computer has simulated every Bowl game 10,000 times based on trends, team and player statistics: College Football Bowl Picks
Betting Trends
• The total has gone OVER in four of UCF's last five games.
• UCF is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games as underdog.
What to Watch For
UCF Offense : UCF QB McKenzie Milton has thrown 13 TDs and 4 INTs in the past three games. He finished the regular season completing 69.2 percent of his passes with 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions, along with close to another 500 yards on the ground. His favorite target all season has been Tre’Quan Smith, who's averaging 20 yards per reception. He's eclipsed the 120-yard mark in three of the last five games.
Milton is projected to finish with 280 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, along with 54 rushing yards on three-to-four carries.
Smith is projected to finish with 54 yards on four receptions, averaging about 14.5 yards per reception in sims.
Auburn Defense: The Tigers only allowed 4.6 yards per play this season. Auburn actually held teams to 1.2 yards per carry fewer than their other performances; they also held opposing QBs to just a 55 percent completion rate.
The Auburn defense is projected to force at least one takeaway, with there being nearly five times the chance of an INT than a recovered fumble.
Analyst's Pick
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