Accuscore Champions League Expert Analysis: Chelsea vs Barcelona

UEFA Champions League Picks: Chelsea - Barcelona

UEFA Champions League returns with a midweek fixture from London, where Chelsea hosts Spanish behemoths Barcelona on Tuesday evening. The second leg, played in Barcelona takes place March 14^th.

Chelsea has seen better days in their domestic competition, Premier League. The reigning champions currently sit fourth, already 19 points behind the leaders Manchester City and Antonio Conte’s seat seems to be shaking already – only nine months after securing the title. Chelsea’s record from the past games is not flattering, with losses to Bournemouth and Watford still hurting despite expected 3-0 win over WBA the previous weekend and 4-0 victory in FA Cup over Hull this weekend. Tuesday’s opposition is, however, on a completely different level and poses another big threat for Conte and his troops.

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Barcelona has had a season no one was expecting and silenced their doubters in a convincing manner. They’ve taken the lead in La Liga by going unbeaten for 24 games now, with a confident 7-point lead on top, with Atletico Madrid chasing and Real Madrid already 17 points behind. As of late they’ve dropped points to both Getafe and Espanyol, so it’s not just a walk in the park domestically either.

In Champions League Chelsea came through with 11 points from six games, winning three, drawing two and losing once. At home they drew with Atletico Madrid 1-1 and AS Roma 3-3, while beating the walkover Qarabag 6-0. Chelsea scored 16 goals in the group stage, but removing Qarabag from the equation it doesn’t look too pretty: 6 goals for and 8 against. Funnily enough, they’ve also gotten rid of 2^nd best goalscorer with two goals, Michy Batshuayi, while Eden Hazard leads the team with three. The replacement forward from Arsenal, Oliver Giroud is available, although unlikely to fit in Conte’s starting XI.

Barcelona completed the group stage with flying colors, winning their group with 14 points ahead of Juventus with 11. Barca won four and drew twice, on the road against Juventus and Olympiakos. Interestingly enough, they scored only once in those three road games, when beating Sporting 0-1. At home they went 3-0-0 with 8:1 goal ratio. Leo Messi leads the team in scoring and is looking for support at this stage, with Luis Suarez being shut down for the most part of the group stage. New acquisition Philippe Coutinho is ineligible for UCL after featuring with Liverpool earlier in the season.

Injuries/suspensions: Chelsea – David Luiz (out), Barcelona – Philippe Coutinho (ineligible)

Probable lineups in Accuscore simulations courtesy of  Rotowire

Accuscore’s Analysis

In Accuscore’s simulations Barcelona is clear favorite to take the win at Stamford Bridge. Despite their very conservative results on the road, the statistical advantage over Chelsea is overwhelming. In a low scoring game the likelihood of a draw is 29.3%, some 2% more than the odds would indicate. Barcelona takes the advantage by winning on the road with 50.6%, indicating a slight value compared to odds around 48%. Chelsea only wins 20.1% of the simulations at home.

Neither team has played very high scoring games this year in the Champions League. In simulations, the score remains low as well: Barcelona hits the net on average 1.44 times, while the hosts Chelsea are stuck with 0.77 goals on average. Only Barcelona’s Leo Messi is more likely to score than not, with approximately 54.5% likelihood to add to his goal total. Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata leads his team in scoring percentage, but the probability is as low as 26.5%.

Have a look at Accuscore's analysis on the UEFA Champions League 2017/2018 1st Knockout round overall here!

Analyst Picks

Chelsea’s struggles domestically are likely to somewhat reflect to Champions League as well and Barcelona’s excellent form makes it a tough game for Antonio Conte’s men. While the first leg is always tricky, it’s more likely that Barcelona will run away as victors from this one.

Barcelona to win:+120 | 2.20 (45.45%) - Accuscore odds -102 | 1.98 (50.6%)

Draw:  +260 | 3.60 (27.78%) - Accuscore odds +241 | 3.41 (29.73%)

Total Under 2.5 goals:+108 | 2.08 (48.08%) – Accuscore odds -181 | 1.55 (64.52%)

Scoring

Leo Messi – Accuscore odds -119 | 1.84 (54.5%)

Luis Suarez, Alvaro Morata– Accuscore odds +278 | 3.78 (26.5%)

Accuscore’s La Liga Season 2019/2020 Preview and Predictions

Nothing new under the Spanish sun

Spanish football league La Liga kicks-off this weekend and we could’ve copy/pasted this article from last year, since not much has changed after Barcelona’s triumphant fourth championship in five seasons. Only Real Madrid twice and Atletico Madrid in that oddball year of 2014 have managed to dethrone Barcelona in the past decade and it seems highly unlikely this year as well. Stranger things have happened, though, but not in Spain.

Barcelona leads the way heading to the new season with acquisitions of highly rated Ajax midfielder Frenkie de Jong and Atletico Madrid’s prolific forward Antoine Griezmann. With the offense already loaded with talent, Barcelona became even more dangerous up front which might ease the burden on Leo Messi, who has been suffering from minor injuries. The repetition of the past two successful seasons seems inevitable, as they are by far the strongest team in every position and have depth like no other team in the World. Barcelona’s odds to win the league are slashed to 1.67 | -149, which is not attractive enough for a shot – even if it’s a likely winner.

With the obvious now written down, let’s have a look at the Accuscore’s simulations for the oncoming season.

Challenging Barcelona

Challengers are once again as usual, Real and Atletico Madrid. Real has struggled domestically after the departure of Christiano Ronaldo and they’ve yet to find a new leader especially in the offensive end. Now they’re putting their faith in Chelsea’s fantastic Eden Hazard, who seems like a perfect fit for Zinedine Zidane’s resurrection project. The likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro patrol the midfield and the team has good balance overall. Acquisitions of defender Eder Militao and left-back Ferland Mendy provide much needed competition and depth to the defensive end, where Sergio Ramos and Marcelo have carried a huge load in the past seasons. Real is likely to do better than last season, when they lost incredible 12 times. Still, Barcelona is way ahead and it’s hard to see them stumble. Real to win the league with odds of 3.40 | +240 is there-there if it’s worth a shot – in simulations they are 10 points behind, but win the league with ~30% probability.

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid is now without their talisman Antoine Griezmann, but acquired “new CR7” in Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix. It’s the same old story for Atletico, flying under the radar and fighting relentlessly with the big boys. They’ve bolstered the team with tough and hard-working players like Porto’s midfielder Hector Herrera and central back Felipe, while bringing in Real’s outcast midfielder Marcos Llorente and Spurs fullback Kieran Trippier. Diego Simeone knows exactly how to win the league without the superheroes, but it would definitely need a slip up from both of the giants. It’s an unlikely scenario so there’s not much to bet on Atletico this time around.

Fighting for Europe

Behind the big three comes a couple of hopefuls to capture the coveted Champions League seeding at 4^th. Europa-league games are a fine target as well and this time there’s only the 5^th and 6^th achieving that chance – down from last season’s seven.

Valencia and Sevilla are the most likely UCL-candidates, but are both way behind the top three. Valencia took the fourth spot last season and will have some burden from the Champions League this season. However, they’ve got adequate depth in that regard and have otherwise been able to stay competitive. Sevilla, on the other hand, have a new manager Julen Lopetegui, who’s been busy molding the team to his liking. Gone are the likes of Wissam Ben Yeder, Pablo Sarabia and Quincy Promes, replaced by dynamic Rony Lopes, Lucas Ocampos and Oliver Torres. Sevilla’s attacking style is likely to be balanced at least a bit, with acquisitions of highly rated Ligue 1 central backs Jules Koundje and Diego Carlos. Sevilla and Valencia are fighting equally for the 4^th place, but Valencia might have a slight advantage due to fielding a well-gelled team from the start. Odds for Valencia to make it to top-4 are 2.50 | +150 and Sevilla 3.50 | +250, which are nicely playable – you choose which to go for!

Moving down the table to the Europa-league hopefuls, there’s a bunch of candidates relatively close to one another. Within six points in the simulations are Getafe, Athletic Bilbao, Real Betis, Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Now, Villarreal is predicted to top 6 by many oddsmakers, but their last season was catastrophic seeing them succumb to 14^th and they’ve not grown that much stronger during the summer. On top of that, their closest rivals look more competitive this time around so Villarreal is predicted only tenth in Accuscore simulations. Getafe is the highest riser, mostly due to excellent last season and a team that looked only to get better under the guidance of Pepe Bordalás. Not much has changed from last season, except for a bit of experience brought in. Getafe is in for another successful season, with odds of 4.00 | +300 for achieving top 6.

Another team grown a tad stronger during the summer is Real Betis. Especially the acquisition of prolific striker Borja Iglesias from Espanyol was a coup, while Nabil Fekir and Juanmi provide adequate support. Quite unproven manager Rubi is a questionmark, but Betis is definitely challenging for top 6 spot as well. The odds for the feat are 4.33 | +333, which makes Betis a good bet for top 6 seeding.

Going down

Surprisingly the trio going down in Accuscore simulations is almost the same as the odds indicate. Only exception is Granada, who is likely to stay up according to Accuscore’s simulations and head down by the bookmakers. Valladolid is quite simply the weakest team this season, with newly promoted Mallorca. They escaped relegation last season by four points, mostly due to Girona’s disastrous last couple of weeks. This time Valladolid is not likely to be as lucky and down they go. Odds of 2.88 | +188 are good enough for a punt. Taking the place of Granada in Accuscore’s most likely relegation candidates is Deportivo Alaves. Alaves had a successful season last time around and they climbed to 11^th. However, they head to the season with a new and unproven manager and first time ever, any expectations. The battle at the relegation line will be tough, but with odds of 3.25 | +225, Alaves is a good pick.

Accuscore’s La Liga 2019/2020 Outright Picks

To win: Real Madrid 3.40 | +240

Top-4: Valencia 2.50 | +150, Sevilla 3.50 | +250

Top-6: Getafe 4.00 | +300, Real Betis 4.33 | +333

Relegation: Valladolid 2.88 | +188, Deportivo Alaves 3.25 | +225

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