• March Madness: Free Friday Pick - Arkansas vs Butler

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Arizona is out, the Pac-12 is in ruins and day two of the madness promises more upsets and shockers. There are a few games in particular that AccuScore thinks are worth keeping an eye on because the computer simply doesn’t agree with Vegas.

    Friday’s Free Pick: Arkansas over Butler – Moneyline

    Arkansas is the no. 7 seed, while the Butler Bulldogs are 1.5 point favorites as the no. 12 seed according to Las Vegas. Well, this is one case where AccuScore thinks Vegas is wrong. Vegas says that Arkansas only has a 46.5% chance of winning, while the computer thinks that number should be closer to 55.3%, so there is 8.8% side value on picking the Razorbacks to justify their seeding. Likewise, the computer calculates Arkansas wins outright or loses by 1 in 58.9% of simulations.

    AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and totals for every single tournament game: College Basketball Picks

    The play here, though, is to take Arkansas on the moneyline at +114.

    In addition, this game also has a hot trends 4-star pick on the Totals. With the line at 151.5, the computer thinks this game will go over, with 54% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations going OVER

    Members Only: Two more picks

    Members: Log in at the top right to reveal two more Analyst Picks for Friday
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    1: Nevada over Texas on the Moneyline: Again, Vegas believes in the lower seed, while AccuScore thinks the selection committee got the seeding correct. AccuScore calculates that Nevada is 55.3% to win straight up, while the odds suggest Nevada is 48.5% to win. There’s value on the moneyline here.

  • NFL Thursday: Steelers vs Titans Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: TNF Analyst Pick

    The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't necessarily looked dominant in every quarter of every game, but they are what their record says they are. 7-2 sitting atop the AFC with the New England Patriots. The Steelers will look for their fifth straight win when they host the Tennessee Titans Thursday night to kick off Week 11 in the NFL.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been practically no movement on the spread or total since they opened Monday night.

    Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
    Total: 44

    At the time of publication, the public was split even on the spread. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    AccuScore has all picks for Thursday & Week 11, including a free forecast with picks, trends and player projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Betting Trends
    -Tennessee is 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games in November. -Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record. The Titans are 6-3. -The UNDER is 7-0 in the Steelers' last seven games after recording fewer than than 90 rushing yards rushing in their previous game.They had just 88 rushing yards (80 by Le'veon Bell) last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

    What to Watch For
    Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 on the road last week after coming back from down 14 to win 20-17 over the Colts. QB Ben Roethlisberger enters Week 11 completing about 61 percetn of his passes with a passer rating of 83.8 -- his lowest in almost a decade. He clearly comes through, though, when it counts the most.

    Roethlesberger is projected to finish with 269 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.6 INTs per simulation.

    Titans RB DeMarco Murray finally had himself a game in Week 10, finish with 2 TDs to help Tennessee win 24-20. Although he's coming off a strong performance where he carried the ball 14 times and added 4 receptions, he has only gone over 14 rushes once this season. He's a goal-line threat, though, and there's always value in that.

    He's projected to finish with 60 yards on 16 carries. He averages just 0.3 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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