Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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What to Watch For

Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

Key Betting Trend

The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

Analyst's Pick

The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons - Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons: Analyst Pick

The Dallas Cowboys -- coming off a big win over Kansas City -- head to Atlanta to match up with the Falcons. Running back Ezekiel Elliot has been the focal point of most NFL discussions this week after the court upheld his initial suspension.

No 'Zeke, no problem -- at least according to our simulations.

Vegas Odds

The total has seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Atlanta opened up as 3-point favorites before settling at -3.5. The total, however, dropped to 48-to-48.5 after opening at 53.

Betting Line: Atlanta Falcon -3.5
Total: 48.5

At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Cowboys. 65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
-Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
-The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games on the road.

What to Watch For
With Elliot out, it'll be a trio of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Rod Smith who'll be expected to try and come close to the production they have otherwise.

McFadden leads the way in sims for Dallas, averaging the most TDs per sim (0.5) amongst the backs. He's projected to put up 71 yards on 14 carries.

The Cowboys' defense hasn't been all that subpar this year, giving up 22.2 points per game which is good for No. 15 in the league. This game largely depends on how often they can force Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense to settle for FGs.

The Dallas defense averages about 1 forced turnover per sim, with a slightly her probability of a forced fumble as opposed to a pick.

Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 280 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.3 INTs per sim, compared to 2.0 TDs per sim.

Analyst's Pick
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