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2017 NFL Futures: Over/Under Lines for Every Team
The 2017 NFL season is upon us, as the first slate of preseason games already played out.
As is the case every year, AccuScore played out every game of the season 10,000 times to predict records for every team in the NFL and project playoff probabilities for every team. Over the coming weeks, AccuScore will have division previews that focus on every team, but let’s start with taking a look at how the season is shaping up at the start of preseason. Up first, let’s take a look at the AFC (NFC preview coming shortly).
AFC East
Not so shockingly, the New England Patriots are expected to win the AFC East, and AccuScore gives Tom Brady and company a 99.28% chance of making the playoffs. Yes, that’s a bit high, but these are the defending Super Bowl champions, and they’re in a division where the New York Jets expect to be in the running for the no. 1 overall pick and the Miami Dolphins have called on Jay Cutler to come out of retirement. Alas, the computer is giving itself some wiggle room. These numbers had Ryan Tannehill under center. Put Cutler in, and Miami is projected to win six games. It’s New England’s division to lose, and frankly, the computer doesn’t see how the Patriots can lose their title this season.
AFC North
The Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals all combine to make this an intriguing division annually, while the Cleveland Browns continue to be the laughing stock of the league. For AccuScore, the Steelers edge out the Ravens, who edge out the Bengals, but the margins are small. Still, the computer gives the initial edge to Pittsburgh to win the division with 55% probability, and gives Big Ben and company a 79.66% chance of making the playoffs.
AFC South
The AFC South is projected to be the closest division race in the AFC, as the Colts are only fractionally ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams expect projected to finish 8-8, while the Tennessee Titans are projected to finish 7-9. What does that mean? It means that all three teams could end up as division champs and in the postseason with one lucky bounce of the ball. However, none of these teams expect to get a Wildcard spot, so their odds to make the playoffs aren’t drastically improved over their odds to win the division. The Houston Texans may be projected to finish bottom of the division, but the 6-10 record suggests that Houston is stronger than any other last place team in the AFC. This is projected to be the most competitive division in the AFC, along with the AFC West.
AFC West
The LA Chargers may be at a new home, but they don’t project to improve significantly on a dismal final season in San Diego. Philip Rivers and company are projected to finish 5-11 with almost no chance at the postseason, but that has a great deal to do with the other three monsters in the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders are all three teams that may exceptionally well at home, while the Chargers will likely struggle to maintain a home crowd presence at their 27,000 seat stadium. Though the Chiefs project to win the division at 10-6, no team has even a 50% chance of winning the division according to AccuScore, and the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders are both projected to finish 9-7. Over all, the AFC West is even more competitive than the AFC North.
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2017 AFC Futures Expert Picks
AccuScore has been traditionally strong in picking futures picks, as last year’s picks went 3 for 3. The key is that we look at the difference between the Over/Under lines and AccuScore’s projections and focus on the value picks. With that in mind, here are the Top 2 AFC Futures picks:
1. Tennessee Titans: Under 8.5 wins - The Titans are not projected to fall flat on their faces by any means, as AccuScore projects Tennessee to win 7.2 games, but pick the Over is picking the Titans to win 2 more games than they’re projected to win. That’s a significant difference over where AccuScore projects the Titans, and the +130 on the Under makes this an even more appealing play.
2. LA Chargers: Under 7.5 wins - The Chargers are in a new home, and they’re going to seemingly be playing in front of plenty of visiting fans even when they’re technically at home. AccuScore projects the Chargers to win 4.9 games, which would put San Diego back to the 5-11 record Rivers and company put up in 2016. Given the strength of the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos, the Chargers are going to struggle to pick up wins and betting on the team to go 8-8 or better doesn’t make sense. Add in that the Chargers are getting +105 for the Under 7.5, and this is the biggest value pick in the AFC.
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