2014 NFL Season Totals: Over-Under Value Lines
It is never too early to start talking NFL football, but it may be a tad bit early to try and break down Week 1 of the season. Heck, training camps have not even opened up. Lines for win totals, however, have opened up, and AccuScore has some initial thoughts on where to get the best value.
When looking at NFL Futures for the 2014 season, there are three categories of line analysis at this early stage: major value, minor value, and marginal value.
The major value picks are futures lines that hold a 25 percent or greater differential between AccuScore’s preliminary estimations and Las Vegas’ early lines. Looking at the chart below, the major value opportunities are the Carolina Panthers (under), Detroit Lions (under), Dallas Cowboys (over), Jacksonville Jaguars (over), New York Giants (under) and San Diego Chargers (over).
The minor values involve lines that are calculated to off by one win or more from the Vegas lines. These value opportunities consist of the Chicago Bears (over), Cincinnati Bengals (over), Denver Broncos (under), Houston Texans (over), New England Patriots (under), Pittsburgh Steelers (over), San Francisco 49ers (under), St. Louis Rams (under), and Tennessee Titans (over).
According to the computer, all the other games offer minimal value, meaning AccuScore and Vegas agree. Obviously, the degree to which each pick offers value varies, and there were a few examples worth exploring a bit further. For some of the more dramatic examples, below are a few cases worth noting:
Dallas Cowboys (Vegas Line: 8.0, AccuScore line: 10.0) – For the past three seasons, Dallas has finished 8-8, so Vegas’ line is justified. However, the talent on the roster makes it hard to bet that the Cowboys will be worse than they were a season ago.
New York Giants (Vegas Line: 8.0, AccuScore line: 4.8)— Related to the Dallas Cowboys being 2 wins better than the Vegas line, the division rival New York Giants are projected to finish about three wins short of where Vegas has them. The AccuScore computer is betting the Giants will worse than projected and the Cowboys will reap the benefits.
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