Eye the underdogs

For the past couple of rounds in European football we have seen a fair amount of surprises, with the likes of Inter Milan, PSG and Liverpool dropping points in matches which were predicted by many to be easy walkovers. In sports, many unpredictable things can happen that affect the final scoreline, but with the help of AccuScore simulation we can predict the odds and probabilities of goals scored and the most probable result of the match, whatever the public opinion or the bookmakers prediction. The AccuScore supercomputer will simulate the match for more than 10 000 times over to provide the probabilities of different results of the match.

It is a known fact that the public is likely to bet on the favorite, no matter how high or low the odds are, therefore often causing the favorites to be highly overrated. The more popular and “trendy” the club is, the more it will attract bets from the public hence forcing the bookmakers to drop the odds even further. Admittedly, it is more likely for Real Madrid to beat Levante than the other way around, but that is not the whole point. The bigger, more pivotal question is: how much more likely it is for Real Madrid to beat Levante, than are the other results? To answer that question, we are able to use the AccuScore simulation engine to get the predictions in easy-to-understand percentages, which we can compare to the odds offered by the bookmakers. More often than not there’s no remarkable value in any result, but sometimes the bookmakers may have made a mistake or even overrated the favorite on purpose. These are the opportunities to go for the underdog and play the odds that are set too high for one reason or another.

For example: two weeks ago Mainz hosted Dortmund in Bundesliga. Visitors Dortmund were highly favored by Vegas bookmakers, who set the probability of away win as high as 58%, while the likelihood of home win was only 19%. After the simulation run more than 10 000 times, the AccuScore supercomputer predicted the probability of away win to be 48% and, remarkably, the home win to be 24%. Therefore the odds by which we would have been ready to pick home win was 4.17. When Vegas offered odds of 5.09 there was plenty of value in betting Mainz to win. Mainz won 2-0 and the pick proved well worth it.

Another example from same day, same league:

Werder Bremen – Schalke

Vegas: 34%-27% AccuScore: 22%-55% Result: 0-3

In short, it is crucial to recognize the over- and undervalued plays and not be afraid to go for the underdog when there’s obvious value in it. In the long run, it will prove profitable as long as you do it right and jump at the chance. That’s exactly what the AccuScore simulation engine is there for.

Don’t follow the lemmings down the cliff – pick the underdog!