by Aaron Fischman

Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

On Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall’s 50th birthday, his Shockers were upset at home by Evansville. Five and a half week later, they will face top-seeded Louisville Cardinals in the Final Four after reeling off four straight wins over Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, La Salle and Ohio State.

The Shockers’ deep run marks the first time a No. 9 seed has made the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. While the pun has certainly been overused, Wichita St. was shocking to some people, at least initially. Now that they’ve taken down a No. 1 and 2 seed, the Shockers are no longer regarded as a flash in the pan. Although they will come into this national semifinal as heavy underdogs, most of the country now understands how well they’re capable of playing.

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While Wichita St.’s Cinderella run make it a trendy team to root for, the Shockers don’t have exclusive rights to all the great storylines this tournament. Since Louisville sophomore Kevin Ware horrifically broke his leg against Duke, the Cardinals have seemingly played with more purpose. Of course, playing for a spot in the Final Four is usually enough motivation, but once Ware was carted away, the passion seen from Louisville shot off the charts. Louisville got the win for Ware, but as the Cardinals travel to Atlanta (Ware’s hometown) their work is not done. They are gunning for that championship so they can dedicate it to their injured “brother.” This situation has naturally brought much more goodwill to Louisville than any No. 1 seed normally receives.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals

AccuScore Forecast: Louisville won 72 percent of the more than 10,000 simulations

Average Score per simulation: Louisville 69.3, Wichita St. 61.2

Game Projections: In simulations, Louisville wins by approximately eight points. The Cardinals are projected to be led by Russ Smith with 18 points, and outshoot their opponents 46 to 39 percent while winning the boards 33-29. There is a 43.2 percent chance of Louisville winning by at least 10 points.

Wichita State record: 30-8
Head Coach Gregg Marshall (Final Four Appearances: 1, NCAA Tournament Titles: 0)

Overrated Rebounding: The Shockers grabbed 38.4 rebounds per game this season (27th in the nation), but they haven’t been nearly as dominant this tournament with the exception of one game. They overpowered La Salle securing 44 rebounds to La Salle’s 23. The Shockers also grabbed 15 offensive rebounds that night, but let’s remember La Salle ranked 292nd in the country in rebounding (31.7 per game). In its 3rd round win over Gonzaga, however, Wichita St. was outrebounded by nine and surrendered 20 offensive rebounds.

Deadly Defense: Through four tournament games, the Shockers have held their opponents to a combined 79-230 shooting, just 34.3 percent.

Stroking the Three: In Wichita St.’s opening win over Pittsburgh, the Shockers struggled from beyond the arc converting just 2 of 20 shots. Since that game, they’ve made 27 of 60 (45 percent). Against Gonzaga, Wichita St. nailed 14-28 from three, to account for more than 55 percent of its points that game.

Starting Strong: In the first halves of games, the Shockers have outscored their four tournament opponents by an average of 9.8 points.

Tournament Leaders: Four Shockers are averaging double-figures this tournament. In his first year with the team after transferring from Oregon, Malcolm Armstead scored 10.8 points per game. He’s increased his point average to 15.5 this tournament, but is shooting only 35.6 percent. Cleanthony Early, the team’s leading scorer this season, is having a great tournament pouring in 14.2 points per night on 47.8 percent shooting.

Although he doesn’t shoot too often, redshirt freshman guard Ron Baker’s three-point precision has been invaluable. He’s made 40 percent of his treys, and only taken a total of six two-point shots during the entire tournament. If he shoots, it’ll probably be from long range. Off the bench, fellow freshman Fred Van Vleet is scoring 8.2 points per game. And last, but certainly not least, senior forward Carl Hall has provided scoring and quality defense for the Shockers, averaging 10.8 points and 3.0 shots per game.

Louisville record: 33-5
Head Coach Rick Pitino (Final Four Appearances: 7, NCAA Tournament Titles: 1)

*Pitino has reached the Final Four with three schools: Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. The trip to Atlanta marks Pitino’s second consecutive Final Four and the third overall in his 12-year tenure at Louisville.

Points, Points, and More Points: The Cardinals are scoring 80.8 points per game this tournament, higher than any other team. In the process, they have been able to convert 55.1 percent of their field-goal attempts, easily the best of the remaining schools (even Michigan, who is shooting the lights out, is a distant second with 49.4). Undoubtedly, Louisville’s pressure defense has created many turnovers that have resulted in easy, high-percentage transition shots.

Picking Pockets: Notching 12 steals per game has enabled the Cardinals to frustrate their opponents this tournament, but that’s nothing new for Louisville. During the season, the Cardinals’ 10.7 steals per game ranked second in the nation trailing only VCU. Louisville forced a combined 44 turnovers against North Carolina A&T and Colorado State, but Duke and Oregon kept their turnovers in check against the Cardinals’ tenacious D. With that said, Louisville’s traps forced Duke’s Mason Plumlee to commit five of his team’s 11 turnovers last Sunday.

Living at the Line: The Cardinals have attempted 25.5 free throws per game. Despite the frequency of attempts, they’ve made only 68.6 percent from the line.

Tournament Leaders: Guard Russ Smith averaged 18.9 points per game this season, but he has taken his game to another level, averaging 26.0 points per game this tournament. He’s been extremely aggressive (and effective) driving to the basket, where he typically either finishes or draws a foul, sometimes both.

As a result, Smith’s earned 40 free-throw attempts over the four games and has made 80 percent of those.

Russ Smith, Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng have combined to produce 7.0 steals per game. The 6-foot-11 Dieng also protects the rim, blocking 2.5 shots per game so far, which matches his blocks average for the season.

As was the case during the regular season, Smith is leading the way, while the Cardinals are getting balanced offensive contributions from many of the other guys: Dieng - 11.0 PPG on 83.3 FG%; Siva - 9.0 PPG; Chane Behanan - 7.0 PPG; Wayne Blackshear - 6.8 PPG; Luke Handcock - 6.8 PPG (*Each of these guys is shooting at least 50 percent from the field this tournament except Siva, who is hovering around his 41 percent season average).

Both Louisville and Wichita St. have gotten great support from their bench. Each bench has contributed at least 20 points per game this tournament.