Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Michigan State vs UCONN: Elite Eight Preview
Michigan State’s late-season streak continued in the round of 16 as they defeated a defensive-minded No. 1 Virginia 61-59. MSU coach Tom Izzo has been around for years and his success at this level speaks for itself. When one of his teams reach the Elite 8, they more often than not move on to the Final Four. Standing in their way this season will be a hot-shooting UCONN team led by Shabazz Napier. Having covered the spread in all three of their tournament games, the Huskies enter this Elite 8 matchup with a high level of confidence. Will it be Izzo’s Spartans that continue their remarkable season, or will Napier have one of those legendary tournament games that cement his legacy in NCAA history?
AccuScore has Michigan State as solid 72 percent favorites to win Sunday’s matchup against UCONN. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 72-64, with MSU having nearly a 58 percent chance of covering the -5.5 spread. There is a 55.8 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 139.
Projected Leaders
Shabazz Napier (UCONN): 16 points (38% FG), 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers
Ryan Boatright (UCONN): 11 points (36% FG), 4 rebounds, 4 assists
Adreian Payne (MSU): 16 points (78% FG), 7 rebounds, 1 steal
Gary Harris (MSU): 16 points (39% FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals
Michigan State vs UCONN: Elite Eight
● UCONN is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
● UCONN is 5-1 SU in its last 6 game.
● The total has gone UNDER in 13 of UCONN’s last 17 games.
● MSU is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
● MSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
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What to Watch For
The biggest matchup problem for UCONN will come down low against MSU’s frontcourt of Brendan Dawson and Adreian Payne. The Huskies just don’t have the speed or agility to keep up with either or them. Payne has been on an absolute tear as of late, with everything from the long ball to his one-dribble pull-up mid-range jumper going for him. Every 4-year player under Tom Izzo has reached the Final Four; this is the last chance for Payne (senior) to join that circle of Spartans.
For UCONN, their man-to-man defense will have to be even more alert than it was against Iowa State. UCONN held a potent Cyclones offense to just 26 percent shooting in the first half. While coach Kevin Ollie was able to stay effective all game with a straight matchup style defense, the same strategy won’t work *as well* against the Spartans. Expect Ollie to employ a zone when necessary, or at the very least a matchup-zone.
Player to Watch
UCONN’s DeAndre Daniels is coming off a 27-point 10-rebound performance against Iowa State. He’s projected to finish with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 1 steal. It will be interesting to see whether or not the UCONN’s home court advantage plays a part in keeping the Huskies calm and composed. Husky nation will be loud and proud Sunday at Madison Square Garden, a home away from home for the university located just hours away.
