Written by Rohit Ghosh
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UCONN vs. Florida: Final Four Trends & Pick
After ending Dayton’s magical run in the NCAA Tournament, the seemingly unbeatable No. 1 Florida Gators find themselves just one game away from the National Title game. Standing in their way are the UCONN Huskies, a team – led by Shabazz Napier – that defeated the Gators 65-64 in a regular season contest. Napier finished with 26 points and sealed the game with a game-winning jumper. Florida’s last loss of the season came nearly three months ago at the hands of the Huskies. Can Napier once again stand tall to the Gators, or will Florida’s relentless defense punch a ticket into the title game on Monday?
AccuScore has Florida as solid 63 percent favorites to win, but give UCONN a 55 percent chance of covering the +6 spread. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 64-61. UCONN is 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
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Projected Leaders
Shabazz Napier: 16 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists
DeAndre Daniels: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal
Michael Frazier II: 13 points (3-6 3PA/3PM), 4 rebounds
Scottie Wilbiken: 12 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds
AccuScore has 4-star picks for both Final Four games, so take a look at AccuScore's Final Four Picks
UCONN vs Florida: Betting Trends
• UCONN is 30-8 SU and 20-14-2 ATS this season.
• UCONN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.
• UCONN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• UCONN is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
• FLORIDA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• FLORIDA is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
What to Watch For
While Napier gets much of the attention from media and opposing defenses, it has been DeAndre Daniels who has been the Huskies’ x-factor in this season’s memorable run. After an inconsistent regular season, Daniels has been playing like a potential lottery pick for the past few weeks – the perfect time to step up your game. Daniels had his best game of the tournament thus far against Iowa State, finishing with 28 points and 10 rebounds in UCONN’s 5-point victory.
UCONN is No. 283 in the nation in opponent offensive rebounds, giving up an average of 10.1 offensive rebounds per game. The Huskies rank No. 246 in defensive rebounding percentage. Florida, coincidentally, averages exactly 10.1 offensive rebounds per game. Stats aside, UCONN was able to contain Michigan State’s big men in Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson in the Elite 8. Florida’s big men aren’t of the same quality, but the tendency to not secure defensive rebounds opens a huge door of opportunity for Florida to get easy buckets. Keep an eye out on UCONN’s defensive rebounding in the first half. Florida’s strategy is usually to get a lead in the first 25-30 minutes of the game and use its versatile defense to maintain that lead. Florida is No. 17 in the nation in first half margin, with a point differential of +5.9 and No. 4 in the nation in second half point differential at +6.8.
