Written by Jon Lee
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NCAA Tournament Preview - South Region
If the Midwest Region isn’t the toughest in the tournament then it certainly belongs to the South. Traditional powers Florida, Kansas, Syracuse, UCLA, and Ohio State will battle it out to reach Arlington, TX. Up-and-coming programs like Virginia Commonwealth and New Mexico at to the depth of this quadrant of the bracket.
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No. 1 Seed – Florida
The Gators finished an unbeaten run through the SEC sweeping both the regular season and the conference tournament. It was the first time any team had accomplished that feat. The committee rewarded that run and a 32-2 overall record with the top overall seed, but still did Florida no favors with a brutal path to the Final Four.
Florida is powered by point guard and SEC POY Scottie Wilbekin, but this is a true team with seven different players averaging at least 22 minutes a night, four of which are seniors. Wilbekin provides the leadership, Casey Prather the scoring, Michael Frazier II is the shooter, and Patric Young takes care of the interior.
Despite the depth of the field in the South, Billy Donovan’s team is the clear favorite to come out of the region doing so in 31.5 percent of simulations. Those odds become even greater if Joel Embiid for Kansas does not return to the court, but a fully healthy Jayhawk squad against the Gators in the regional final would be must-see.
Upset Alert
The 5/12 game is always a popular upset pick, and that again is possible in this region. Stephen F. Austin is 36.2 percent likely to beat VCU. Shaka Smart’s team is once again very good defensively, but it struggles on offense ranking just 106th in the country in adjusted efficiency. The Lumberjacks meanwhile are very good with the ball ranking 47th in adjusted efficiency, and haven’t lost a game since November.
Best Third Round Match-up
Syracuse and Ohio State could square off on Saturday, which would pit two of the best defenses in the country against each other. The two teams have combined to lose 8 of their last 13, but that wouldn’t take away from the potential allure of this game with a Sweet Sixteen berth on the line. If this game happens, freshman point guard phenom Tyler Ennis would face off against senior guard and well-known defensive ace Aaron Craft. It’s the kind of match-up that tournament dreams are made of. As of right now this game would be projected to be in the played in the high 50’s or low 60’s with just a two point projected spread.
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