Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Kentucky vs. UConn: 2014 National Championship
Rarely does one expect to see a No. 7 and No. 8 seed be the marquee matchup of the NCAA Tournament. Thanks to improbable runs and game-winning three-pointers, that’s exactly what the title game has this year as the Kentucky Wildcats take on the UCONN Huskies in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game. According to NBC Sports, tonight’s matchup the highest-ever combined seed of two teams in the title game. UCONN coach Kevin Ollie mentioned after the win over Florida that his team “wins or loses on defense.” Facing the star-studded lineup of Kentucky, Ollie’s squad will have to have the defensive performance of the tournament to come out on top.
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AccuScore has the UCONN Huskies as slight 51 percent favorites to win tonight against Kentucky. Kentucky did have more big wins (10 points or more) in the simulations, giving them the slight advantage in the average score. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 68.3 - 67.8, with UCONN having a 57.3 percent chance of covering the +3 spread.
Betting Trends
● The Wildcats are 11-0 SU, 8-1-2 ATS past 11 tournament games.
● The Wildcats are 8-2 SU in Final Four games since 1996.
● The Huskies are 6-1 SU and ATS past seven games as underdogs.
● The Huskies are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in Final Four games since 1999.
● The Huskies are 10-2 ATS past 12 tournament games.
Projected Leaders
Aaron Harrison: 14 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
Julius Randle: 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 TOs
Shabazz Napier: 17 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds
DeAndre Daniels: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal
What to Watch for
The craziest stat surrounding the game is the fact that Kentucky has won 11 straight Tournament games. Their last tournament loss came to UCONN in 2011 Final Four. Tonight’s matchup will be largely determined by which team can impose its style of play - coaching will play a bigger role than most may realize. Ollie knows Kentucky has too much size in the frontcourt for UCONN to go toe-to-toe with, and John Calipari knows the Huskies guards can make it a nightmare for opposing perimeter players. Kentucky’s probability to commit more turnovers than UCONN was an impactful variable in the simulations.
UCONN gives up about 10.1 offensive rebounds per game on average while Kentucky pulls down about 13 per game. UCONN has some talent up front in Amidah Brimah and DeAndre Daniels, but not enough strength to compete with a Kentucky team that has one of the biggest and most physically imposing frontcourt in recent memory. Surprisingly, AccuScore projects Kentucky to have very little advantage on the boards.
X-Factor
Kentucky’s Dakari Johnson was an integral, but silent part of UK’s victory over Wisconsin. He took it upon himself to defend and contain Frank Kaminsky, and did so successfully. More importantly, he finished with 10 points and 7 rebounds, 5 offensive.
Last Spring, Johnson said, "I am going to win a national championship at Kentucky next year." He’s just one game away from that goal and his unreal length should play a big part in tonight’s game against a vertically-inferior UCONN team.
