Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Kentucky vs Kansas State: NCAA Tournament
In potentially one of the tougher matchups to predict, No. 8 Kentucky and No. 9 Kansas State face off on Friday in the Midwest Regional in St. Louis. Kentucky enters the NCAA Tournament following a tough 61-60 loss vs Florida. Similarly, Kansas State is coming off a 91-85 defeat at the hands of Iowa State. Kentucky is favored by five points (-5), with the OVER/UNDER set at 132.5. Given that Kansas State is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games against SEC opponents, the safer bet to take is K-State +5.
AccuScore has Kentucky as 58 percent favorites to win the game. The average rounded score after 10,000 simulations is 69-67, with Kansas State having a 56.4 percent chance of covering the +5 spread. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 6 games. There is a 56.4 percent chance the total combined score goes over 132.5.
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Projected Leaders
Marcus Foster: 16 points (41% FG), 3 rebounds, 3 turnovers
Thomas Gipson: 11 points (51% FG), 6 rebounds
James Young: 14 points (39% FG), 4 rebounds, 1 steal
Aaron Harrison: 14 points (41% FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals
Julius Randle: 13 points (50% FG), 10 rebounds
Prior to the SEC title game, Randle had six straight double-doubles. After a poor performance vs Florida last week, look for Randle to make an impact early in Friday’s game vs Kansas State.
Betting Trends
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 7 games
-Kansas State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
-Kentucky is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
It will once again be a battle of styles of play, as Kentucky puts up nearly 76 points per game while Kansas State has limited their opponents to less than 66 points per game on average. Kansas State is definitely more battle tested as they did better than expected in conference games within the Big 12. Against Big 12 opponents, Kansas State held teams to fewer than 64 points per game.
Kentucky brings tons of individual talent to the game, but will need a team effort to get to the second round where Wichita State will more than likely be the opponent. It’ll take a strong performance from Foster for Kansas State – No. 27 in the nation with an average of 15.5 assists per game – to come out on top.
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