Accuscore's bold season predictions continue with the infamous Spanish La Liga. It has been a two-way for more than a decade now, with an odd exception a couple of years back. Real Madrid and Barcelona have ruled with an iron fist, either one always somehow finding the way to reach the top. This season, however, could be different!
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There's no stopping Real Madrid at their current form, many believe. That just might be the case, but there could also be problems in paradise. While Christiano Ronaldo is getting older, their core players have virtually won everything there is to win in Spain. Same goes for Barcelona, who now have to deal with life after Neymar (and for a while without injured Luis Suarez). Replacements have not yet arrived, unless you consider China-import Paulinho as such. It doesn't look too good for Barcelona and it is likely that the Madrid teams will man the top two seats.
In Accuscore simulations, we have a bold prediction to win the league: Atletico Madrid. Despite not boasting as shiny and luxurious squad as their rivals, Diego Simeone's Atletico has shown it belongs right there with the big boys. With their impregnable defense, relentless work rate and extremely well honed system make Atletico one of the hardest teams to beat in the league, even for Real and Barcelona. They only allowed 27 goals in 38 games last season and are only likely to get better. With the key players in place and money to spend, Simeone might look for support up front in form of Chelse's out-of-favor Diego Costa. Even without acquisitions, Atletico make it to the top this season, albeit with same points as Real.
Here’s how the Accuscore’s simulations play out after it’s all said and done:
|
Accuscore
|
Team
|
Points
|
Bookers
|
Difference
|
Title odds
|
|
1
|
Atletico Madrid
|
95
|
3.
|
+2
|
34.00
|
|
2
|
Real Madrid
|
95
|
1.
|
-1
|
1.70
|
|
3
|
Barcelona
|
89
|
2.
|
-1
|
2.30
|
|
4
|
Real Sociedad
|
70
|
5.
|
+1
|
500.00
|
|
5
|
Athletic Club
|
64
|
6.
|
+1
|
500.00
|
|
6
|
Villarreal
|
58
|
8.
|
+2
|
500.00
|
|
7
|
Valencia
|
54
|
7.
|
0
|
500.00
|
|
8
|
Las Palmas
|
53
|
16.
|
+8
|
1500.00
|
|
9
|
Sevilla
|
52
|
4.
|
-5
|
150.00
|
|
10
|
Real Betis
|
48
|
12.
|
+2
|
1000.00
|
|
11
|
Malaga
|
44
|
11.
|
0
|
1000.00
|
|
12
|
Celta de Vigo
|
41
|
9.
|
-3
|
1000.00
|
|
13
|
Espanyol
|
40
|
10.
|
-3
|
1000.00
|
|
14
|
Eibar
|
39
|
14.
|
0
|
1500.00
|
|
15
|
Girona
|
38
|
17.
|
+2
|
2500.00
|
|
16
|
Getafe
|
38
|
18.
|
+2
|
3000.00
|
|
17
|
Leganes
|
37
|
19.
|
+2
|
3000.00
|
|
18
|
Levante
|
36
|
20.
|
+2
|
3000.00
|
|
19
|
Deportivo Alaves
|
32
|
13.
|
-6
|
1500.00
|
|
20
|
Deportivo La Coruna
|
26
|
16.
|
-4
|
2000.00
|
The biggest surprise lower down the table is Sevilla's poor form in Accuscore's simulations. Last season's fourth place is now turned to 9th. They were excellent last season, but according to statistics, they shouldn't have been that high up in the table. Safe to say it's not the easiest place to go for a new manager Eduardo Berrizzo, no matter how good a job he did with Celta Vigo.
On a different note, there's also a surprise gainer in the simulations, namely Las Palmas. The islanders have shown some promise especially offensively, but inconsistency and shaky defense has kept them at the lower mid-table. Last season they scored a similar amount of goals as Villarreal, Bilbao and Real Sociedad, but conceded 3rd most in the league. They started well last season but succumbed to a horrible finish with only one win in the final 10 games. If the new manager Manolo Marquez gets his defense organised and they can keep up the momentum from the beginning, here could be our dark horse for the race to top-10!
Accuscore vs Odds
Various bookmakers offer generous odds for Atletico Madrid to win the title – Real is the more favored one with Barcelona right at their heels. In Accuscore simulations it is Atletico with the best value, by far.
To win – Atletico Madrid @ 34
No one seems to have faith in Diego Simeones group, like they didn’t the last time his group captured the title. Real Madrid certainly have the biggest names and Barcelona does follow suit despite their losses. However, Atletico’s chances to win are far more greater than the odds indicate and there’s excellent value in picking Tico to win it!
To get relegated – Deportivo La Coruna @ 4.50
In Accuscore simulations, Deportivo La Coruna is the worst team this season. La Coruna barely kept their head above water last season with a couple of magnificent efforts, but their luck will run out this time around. They’ve lost a couple of key figures in the summer, while the rest of bottom feeders look a bit stronger. With these odds Deportivo La Coruna is a good bet to go down in the last three.
All of AccuScore's La Liga Picks
