Serie A 2015-16: Title to the Capital
Juventus has won Serie A four times in a row. During the last two seasons they have gained a whopping 17 points more than second place AS Roma. As Serie A starts on Saturday, will this continue and Juventus taking a fifth title in a row to match their success in 1930’s?
Accuscore’s advanced sports simulation engine played each and every game of the upcoming Serie A season 10,000 times to calculate and predict the outcome of the 2015-16 Serie A season. Based on simulated results, Juventus will cool down and the main title contenders come from the capital, Roma. Both AS Roma and their local rival Lazio are predicted to gather over 80 points.
In Serie A the amount of squad changes during the transfer window is much higher than in other European top leagues. Simulations generally favor teams with better cohesion and smaller squad turnover. Both teams from the Rome are good examples of this. Even though the turnover of players was quite high in AS Rome, the key players have remained in a team or clear upgrades have been acquired. In short, the computer thinks AS Roma did well in the summer transfer window.
Note: AccuScore has forecasts and analysis for every 2015-16 Serie A match: Serie A Betting Tips
Lazio only moved a handful of players during the transfer window. The target seems to be building the team inside and utilizing the same core that brought good results during the last season, where Lazio finished third. Lazio only finished one point behind AS Roma. AccuScore’s super computer likes this approach, as the prediction is for Lazio to finish second but only one point behind their local rivals.
This one point is easily swings in the opposite direction, as simulations predict both local derby games to end up as draws. One win from these matches could take Lazio above AS Roma in a table.
Many pundits predict that Juventus will take another Serie A title. However, they have lost iconic players including Arturo Vidal, Carlos Tevez and Andrea Pirlo. The computer clearly thinks that the replacements in the form of Mandzukic, Paulo Dybala and Sami Khedira are not filling the gaps at the same high levels. Even though all top teams are playing in Europe, Juventus might have biggest expectations for success in Champions League. European play could and should derail Juve’s concentration on the domestic Serie A.
Both of the Milan teams have improved their squads during the transfer window. This is partially shown in the simulations, but it looks like AC Milan or Inter cannot break in to top three positions. They would be fighting for place in Europa mainly with Napoli that is projected to finish fifth this season.
Fiorentina has been 4th in each of the last three seasons, but now simulations drop them to 8th. The strengthening of the other teams may be too much for them. Also it is interesting to see how the team that has players from 16 different countries will work together. The simulations did not value this multicultural squad too highly.
The surprise team of the last season, Genoa, will drop back to the lower level of the mid table and needs to be careful to stay out of the relegation struggle. The prediction is that they are only one win safe from the relegation zone. Otherwise there are no big jumps in the predicted mid table of the Serie A compared to last season.
The promoted teams from Serie B are Carpi, Frosinone and an elevator team Bologna. Our predictions don’t promise a great season for any of them. Carpi could pull out a miracle and stay in Serie A for another season, but right now it looks like all of these teams will be relegated at the end of the season. Udinese has slid from a top three position few years ago to the bottom of the table and it won’t be a great surprise if they are relegated instead of Carpi.
Recent history is full of financial issues in many Serie A teams. Hopefully during this season positions are decided based on the performance on the pitch and not in the cabinets.
