By Shahan Ahmed
Make sure to check out my Champions League Quarterfinals 1st leg Pick
Accuscore used individual player and team statistics and used projected lineups to simulate out the remainder of the UEFA Champions League, and Real Madrid is the most likely team to win Europe’s premier club competition. FC Barcelona is 2nd most likely to win, but Madrid is more than twice as likely to win the competition as any other team.
The quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League kick-off on Tuesday. Like the Round of 16, this is a two legged affair, but the draw for the rest of the competition is now set. The winner of AC Milan and Barcelona will face the winner of Benfica and Chelsea in one semi-final. The winner of Marseille and Bayern Munich will face the winner of Real Madrid and Apoel Nicosia in the other. The final will be a single match held in Munich on May 19th, 2012.
TEAM |
SEMI |
FINAL |
CHAMP |
Real Madrid |
87.7% |
63.0% |
43.4% |
Bayern Munich |
76.2% |
28.3% |
13.2% |
Barcelona |
70.7% |
49.8% |
21.6% |
Chelsea |
63.4% |
26.2% |
8.6% |
Benfica |
36.6% |
7.2% |
2.2% |
AC Milan |
29.3% |
16.8% |
7.6% |
Marseille |
23.8% |
5.9% |
2.4% |
Apoel Nicosia |
12.3% |
2.8% |
1.0% |
Seriously, Real Madrid favored over Barcelona?
Calm down, Barcelona fans. The computer isn’t saying that Real Madrid is better than Barcelona, but it is saying that Real Madrid is the most likely champion in Europe’s premier club competition. Confused? Well, it’s quite simple, really, and it’s all about matchups.
In the quarterfinals, Real Madrid is nearly a 90% favorite to progress past Apoel Nicosia, while Barcelona is about 70% to progress past AC Milan. Barcelona is still a heavy favorite in the quarterfinals, but Madrid is a heavier favorite because the computer considers AC Milan to be tougher competition than Apoel Nicosia. Real Madrid’s status as favorite to win it all isn’t as much an endorsement of its direct superiority over Barcelona as it is a calculation that Madrid has an easier route to hoisting the Champions League trophy.
Apoel and Marseille have a combined 8.7 % chance of making the final, so if Barcelona progresses to the final, the Blaugrana expect to play either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich with 91.3 % certainty. Interestingly, in a head-to-head matchup, Barcelona is a toss-up to win in a one-off match against Real Madrid. Barcelona, on the other hand, drops to slight underdog against Bayern Munich, due to the computer weighing in that the Germans would be playing in their home city and stadium.
If Real Madrid reaches the final, it has a 33.4% chance of facing either Chelsea or Benfica. Los Blancos are heavy favorites against both those opponents. AC Milan has a 16.8% chance of making the May Munich match, but Madrid is also a favorite against the men from Madrid. With only a coin-flip’s chance of meeting Messi and company in the final, Jose Mourinho’s Madrid is the most likely team to walk away the winner in Munich on May 19.
Taking every possible combination and scenario into account, the AccuScore computer calculated that Real Madrid is the most likely team to win the Champions League due, in large part, to a favorable draw. Barcelona is 2nd most likely to win, and Bayern Munich is third. Chelsea, despite its recent instability, is 4th most likely to finally win a European trophy for Roman Abramovich. Due to drawing Barcelona in the quarterfinals, AC Milan is the 5th the fifth most likely side, but Milan’s chances improve dramatically if it can progress past the quarterfinals. However, we’ll get to that in the semi-finals…
Champions League Schedule
Tuesday
Benfica v Chelsea
Real Madrid v Apoel Nicosia
Wednesday
Marseille v Bayern Munich
AC Milan v Barcelona Matchup of the Round
Note: All Matches start at 2:45pm EST
